Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.78 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 31st-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Cons

The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (46.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.8% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 96 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards