Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Howell this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 67.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- Terry McLaurin’s 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 68.0.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
