Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+106/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-145) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 76.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Dawson Knox has posted far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Dawson Knox has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards