Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-145) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 76.0% of his team’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- Dawson Knox has posted far fewer air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Dawson Knox has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
