Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-137) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Allen Lazard has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.2%).
Allen Lazard has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (85.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Allen Lazard has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).

Cons

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Allen Lazard’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.5% to 63.6%.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards