Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-114) after it opened @ 261.5 (-114).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 274.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the New England Patriots defense this year (67.1%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards