Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-125/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 241.5 (-125) after it opened @ 234.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Jarrett Stidham has been among the most accurate QBs in football this year with an impressive 66.7% Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards
272
Passing Yards
