Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 255.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (263.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.82 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Aaron Rodgers has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (269.0).
- Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 66.0%.
- Aaron Rodgers’s passing efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 7.14 yards-per-target compared to a 8.17 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
