Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 255.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-most yards in football (263.0 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.82 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (269.0).
Aaron Rodgers’s passing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.8% to 66.0%.
Aaron Rodgers’s passing efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 7.14 yards-per-target compared to a 8.17 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards