Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-133) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to garner 16.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has received 76.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most yards in the league (144 per game) vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dalvin Cook has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (73.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards