Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-135) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Aaron Jones has earned 50.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Aaron Jones has rushed for significantly more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Aaron Jones’s ground effectiveness (4.99 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (92nd percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards