Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (+100) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
- Terry McLaurin has been among the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 69.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 61.8% to 69.5%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Terry McLaurin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- Terry McLaurin’s 58.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 68.0.
- The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
