Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keenan AllenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chargers vs. Rams
Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Keenan Allen has been among the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an impressive 76.0 yards per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (160.0) versus WRs this year.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
