Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-105/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-105) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to notch 6.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this season (20.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.8%).
David Njoku has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 41.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 7.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards