Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-115) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller has posted far fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
Darren Waller’s 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 56.5.
Darren Waller’s talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling a mere 3.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.32 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards