Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this year (92.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
A.J. Brown has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

Cons

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 143.0) versus wideouts this year.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards