Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jarrett Stidham from EV Insight

Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards

Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 201.5 (-135) after it opened @ 205.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.01 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards