Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
- The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards
232
Passing Yards
