Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Baltimore Ravens continue as our No. 1 team in DVOA after Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season, but the big story right now is Green Bay. The Packers blew out the Saints 34-0 last night and now rank second in weighted DVOA which gives more weight to recent games. The Packers are ahead of Detroit and trailing only the Ravens.
The Packers’ run has turned our Big 5 into a Big 6 when it comes to our Super Bowl odds, with six teams between 11% and 17% chance to win the Super Bowl. DVOA has more of a Big 7 but the Vikings are a bit lower in Super Bowl odds. We’ll see what happens when the Packers play the Vikings this week.
I went looking for how well teams have played over the last six weeks because of discussion about what moving Kyle Hamilton to full-time safety has meant for the Baltimore Ravens defense, only to discover that is the Packers who have been the best team in the league over the last six weeks with the Ravens second. Now, there is some extra cushion in the opponent adjustments for the Packers here. They played the 49ers without Brock Purdy and won big, and so that game is probably adjusted positively too much. The negative adjustments for playing the Saints aren’t large enough either, because the Saints season is split between Derek Carr games and Rattler/Haener games. Still, even if you assume that the Packers are a bit too high in DVOA over the last six weeks bceause of these adjustments, they’re still among the best two or three teams during that period. Here’s a look at the top 12 teams over Weeks 11-16 along with their rank in each phase of the game.
| Top 12 DVOA, Weeks 11-16 2024 | ||||||||
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
RK | OFF. DVOA |
RK | DEF. DVOA |
RK | S.T. DVOA |
RK |
| GB | 55.6% | 1 | 30.5% | 3 | -18.6% | 2 | 6.5% | 2 |
| BAL | 39.9% | 2 | 33.0% | 2 | -10.2% | 3 | -3.3% | 29 |
| BUF | 36.8% | 3 | 42.8% | 1 | -0.4% | 12 | -6.3% | 31 |
| PHI | 30.5% | 4 | 10.8% | 11 | -21.2% | 1 | -1.5% | 22 |
| DEN | 19.3% | 5 | 3.3% | 16 | -8.7% | 6 | 7.4% | 1 |
| LAR | 17.8% | 6 | 21.9% | 5 | 3.5% | 17 | -0.6% | 17 |
| DET | 17.4% | 7 | 22.5% | 4 | 4.8% | 19 | -0.3% | 14 |
| MIN | 16.3% | 8 | 15.8% | 7 | -1.1% | 10 | -0.6% | 16 |
| PIT | 9.6% | 9 | 0.1% | 18 | -4.0% | 9 | 5.6% | 3 |
| TB | 9.5% | 10 | 11.7% | 9 | 0.1% | 14 | -2.1% | 26 |
| KC | 8.8% | 11 | 12.7% | 8 | 7.7% | 25 | 3.8% | 5 |
| LAC | 8.5% | 12 | 11.6% | 10 | 4.9% | 20 | 1.8% | 9 |
You’ll also notice a lot of shuffing in teams 8 to 13 this week. Those teams have been pretty tight together for the last few weeks. Washington is up while San Francisco and Houston are down.
Full DVOA Table Through Week 16
These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 16 weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 38.1% | 1 | 41.2% | 1 | 10-5 | 34.8% | 1 | -4.6% | 10 | -1.3% | 24 |
| 2 | DET | 34.3% | 2 | 31.9% | 3 | 13-2 | 18.6% | 4 | -10.3% | 5 | 5.4% | 2 |
| 3 | GB | 29.6% | 3 | 37.0% | 2 | 11-4 | 19.3% | 3 | -9.1% | 6 | 1.2% | 11 |
| 4 | BUF | 25.9% | 4 | 27.0% | 5 | 12-3 | 24.3% | 2 | -5.1% | 9 | -3.5% | 28 |
| 5 | PHI | 21.9% | 5 | 27.5% | 4 | 12-3 | 6.6% | 12 | -14.9% | 2 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 6 | MIN | 19.1% | 6 | 14.0% | 8 | 13-2 | 4.9% | 14 | -14.7% | 3 | -0.5% | 20 |
| 7 | KC | 16.9% | 7 | 11.8% | 9 | 14-1 | 11.0% | 8 | -4.2% | 12 | 1.8% | 10 |
| 8 | WAS | 12.3% | 12 | 15.1% | 7 | 10-5 | 13.3% | 6 | 3.4% | 22 | 2.4% | 6 |
| 9 | DEN | 11.7% | 10 | 16.7% | 6 | 9-6 | -4.8% | 20 | -11.7% | 4 | 4.8% | 4 |
| 10 | PIT | 10.5% | 11 | 10.6% | 11 | 10-5 | -1.9% | 16 | -6.1% | 8 | 6.3% | 1 |
| 11 | SF | 9.8% | 8 | 5.4% | 14 | 6-9 | 8.0% | 10 | -6.5% | 7 | -4.7% | 31 |
| 12 | LAC | 9.6% | 13 | 11.0% | 10 | 9-6 | 5.4% | 13 | -3.4% | 13 | 0.8% | 13 |
| 13 | HOU | 9.1% | 9 | 5.2% | 15 | 9-6 | -10.1% | 24 | -16.8% | 1 | 2.4% | 7 |
| 14 | TB | 7.6% | 14 | 4.3% | 17 | 8-7 | 11.9% | 7 | 2.6% | 18 | -1.7% | 25 |
| 15 | ARI | 5.9% | 15 | 4.5% | 16 | 7-8 | 7.4% | 11 | 1.5% | 16 | 0.1% | 18 |
| 16 | LAR | 4.9% | 16 | 10.0% | 12 | 9-6 | 10.0% | 9 | 2.9% | 20 | -2.3% | 26 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
WEI. DVOA |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | CIN | 4.5% | 17 | 5.9% | 13 | 7-8 | 14.1% | 5 | 8.4% | 29 | -1.1% | 22 |
| 18 | SEA | 0.5% | 18 | -4.3% | 19 | 8-7 | -4.8% | 19 | -4.2% | 11 | 1.1% | 12 |
| 19 | IND | -4.9% | 21 | -5.0% | 20 | 7-8 | -7.4% | 22 | -1.9% | 14 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 20 | ATL | -5.5% | 20 | -12.2% | 22 | 8-7 | 2.8% | 15 | 4.4% | 24 | -3.9% | 29 |
| 21 | NO | -8.6% | 19 | -18.1% | 25 | 5-10 | -7.6% | 23 | 3.2% | 21 | 2.2% | 8 |
| 22 | MIA | -9.1% | 24 | 0.8% | 18 | 7-8 | -6.9% | 21 | 2.8% | 19 | 0.6% | 15 |
| 23 | DAL | -10.2% | 23 | -7.6% | 21 | 7-8 | -11.3% | 26 | 4.2% | 23 | 5.3% | 3 |
| 24 | NYJ | -13.4% | 22 | -13.3% | 23 | 4-11 | -4.6% | 18 | 7.6% | 28 | -1.2% | 23 |
| 25 | CHI | -15.4% | 25 | -16.7% | 24 | 4-11 | -11.1% | 25 | 6.1% | 27 | 1.9% | 9 |
| 26 | JAX | -18.1% | 26 | -18.3% | 26 | 3-12 | -2.4% | 17 | 18.3% | 32 | 2.6% | 5 |
| 27 | LV | -22.3% | 28 | -20.3% | 27 | 3-12 | -19.7% | 30 | 2.2% | 17 | -0.4% | 19 |
| 28 | NYG | -25.1% | 27 | -28.7% | 29 | 2-13 | -15.8% | 28 | 6.0% | 26 | -3.3% | 27 |
| 29 | TEN | -32.5% | 29 | -33.9% | 31 | 3-12 | -23.0% | 31 | -0.4% | 15 | -10.0% | 32 |
| 30 | NE | -33.4% | 30 | -33.5% | 30 | 3-12 | -18.7% | 29 | 14.8% | 30 | 0.1% | 17 |
| 31 | CAR | -33.8% | 32 | -25.7% | 28 | 4-11 | -15.2% | 27 | 17.7% | 31 | -1.0% | 21 |
| 32 | CLE | -38.3% | 31 | -34.8% | 32 | 3-12 | -29.2% | 32 | 4.5% | 25 | -4.6% | 30 |
