Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accrue 10.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has compiled a colossal 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has been among the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 90.0 yards per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 105.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards