NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The 2022 NFL free agency period arrives Monday, and it’s time for many players around the league to find new homes.
For fantasy football, where a player lands drives the story. They could be a complete dud in one location but a fantasy revelation in another (think Odell Beckham on the Browns versus Odell Beckham on the Rams).
Of course, players joining new teams also means players leaving old teams. This article will examine each team’s “vacated opportunity.” For example, if the Rams passed the ball 100 times last year, and 50 of those passes went to OBJ (an upcoming free agent), their vacated opportunity target share would be 50%.
Teams With the Most Vacated Target Share and Receiving Yard Share
These are the teams that have the most receiving work from 2021 available based on impending free agents.
|
Team |
Vacated Target % |
Vacated Rec Yd % |
|
Green Bay Packers |
59% |
63% |
|
Atlanta Falcons |
55% |
57% |
|
Arizona Cardinals |
55% |
59% |
|
Washington Commanders |
43% |
41% |
|
Chicago Bears |
41% |
42% |
|
New York Jets |
39% |
39% |
|
Indianapolis Colts |
35% |
34% |
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
33% |
30% |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
33% |
33% |
|
Tennessee Titans |
32% |
30% |
|
New York Giants |
31% |
31% |
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
31% |
31% |
|
New Orleans Saints |
30% |
32% |
|
Houston Texans |
29% |
29% |
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
25% |
20% |
|
Miami Dolphins |
24% |
24% |
|
Seattle Seahawks |
23% |
22% |
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
19% |
19% |
|
San Francisco 49ers |
19% |
14% |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
19% |
18% |
|
Minnesota Vikings |
19% |
16% |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
18% |
15% |
|
Detroit Lions |
17% |
19% |
|
Cincinnati Bengals |
16% |
13% |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
16% |
14% |
|
Dallas Cowboys |
16% |
18% |
|
Buffalo Bills |
13% |
16% |
|
New England Patriots |
13% |
13% |
|
Denver Broncos |
11% |
7% |
|
Cleveland Browns |
10% |
8% |
|
Carolina Panthers |
6% |
9% |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
3% |
2% |
Green Bay gets obliterated on paper in this metric with both Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling hitting free agency, but with Aaron Rodgers back for the Pack, it’s hard to see Adams playing elsewhere. (The team did use the franchise tag on Adams – other tagged players were not included in these calculations — but reports Monday morning indicated Adams has told the team he won’t play on the tag and will need a long-term deal, so that situation is worth monitoring.)
The Falcons may be a surprise team at No. 2 most vacated share on this list. And that doesn’t even include the 2022 loss of Calvin Ridley.
Arizona is also losing a lot of juice to free agency — both out wide and out of the backfield — but they at least locked up Zach Ertz.
Washington, meanwhile, traded for Carson Wentz to (in theory) shore up the QB position. Terry McLaurin may be force-fed the ball in 2022 with 43% of the team’s targets from last year are now up for grabs.
The teams with the least turnover include Philadelphia (another year with Jalen Hurts), Carolina (maybe they’ll trade for Deshaun Watson, but the WR/TE/RB stability is strong), Cleveland (almost no on-the-table opportunity for newcomer Amari Cooper to gobble up).
Teams With the Most Vacated Rush Attempt Share and Rushing Yard Share
These are the teams that have the most rushing work from 2021 available based on impending free agents.
|
Team |
Vacated Rush Att. % |
Vacated Rush Yd. % |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
86% |
83% |
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
85% |
82% |
|
Arizona Cardinals |
84% |
84% |
|
Seattle Seahawks |
64% |
64% |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
59% |
56% |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
54% |
51% |
|
Atlanta Falcons |
52% |
53% |
|
Denver Broncos |
49% |
49% |
|
New York Giants |
43% |
46% |
|
Houston Texans |
40% |
37% |
|
Miami Dolphins |
39% |
44% |
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
37% |
29% |
|
New York Jets |
27% |
27% |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
22% |
20% |
|
San Francisco 49ers |
19% |
16% |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
19% |
24% |
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
19% |
18% |
|
Washington Commanders |
14% |
18% |
|
New England Patriots |
13% |
14% |
|
Chicago Bears |
13% |
13% |
|
Buffalo Bills |
9% |
11% |
|
Dallas Cowboys |
8% |
8% |
|
Indianapolis Colts |
8% |
7% |
|
Carolina Panthers |
6% |
6% |
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
5% |
5% |
|
New Orleans Saints |
5% |
6% |
|
Green Bay Packers |
2% |
3% |
|
Detroit Lions |
1% |
2% |
|
Tennessee Titans |
1% |
1% |
|
Minnesota Vikings |
0% |
0% |
|
Cincinnati Bengals |
0% |
0% |
|
Cleveland Browns |
0% |
0% |
Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Arizona are all set to get slaughtered at the RB position, losing at least 80% of their team’s rushes and rush yards from last year.
To put that in context, about half the league (15 teams) is losing fewer than 15% of their team rush attempts.
Those three teams are the landing spots where a free agent RB could have the biggest impact, if they are able to win a three-down starting role.
The Chiefs (59% void) and Falcons (52% void) are also really interesting options with up-and-coming QBs.
Teams With the Most Vacated PPR Fantasy Points
And now we put it all together. These are the teams that have the most fantasy production from 2021 available based on impending free agents.
|
Team |
Vacated PPR % |
|
Arizona Cardinals |
62% |
|
Atlanta Falcons |
59% |
|
Green Bay Packers |
50% |
|
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
40% |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
38% |
|
Chicago Bears |
38% |
|
Washington Commanders |
37% |
|
New York Jets |
37% |
|
New York Giants |
36% |
|
Houston Texans |
32% |
|
Seattle Seahawks |
31% |
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
30% |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
29% |
|
Miami Dolphins |
27% |
|
Indianapolis Colts |
26% |
|
Tennessee Titans |
25% |
|
New Orleans Saints |
22% |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
20% |
|
Denver Broncos |
19% |
|
Pittsburgh Steelers |
18% |
|
Los Angeles Chargers |
18% |
|
Las Vegas Raiders |
18% |
|
Dallas Cowboys |
17% |
|
San Francisco 49ers |
17% |
|
Detroit Lions |
14% |
|
Buffalo Bills |
13% |
|
Minnesota Vikings |
13% |
|
New England Patriots |
13% |
|
Cincinnati Bengals |
12% |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
9% |
|
Carolina Panthers |
7% |
|
Cleveland Browns |
5% |
Only three teams are set to lose at least half of their fantasy points to free agency this year: The Packers (again, pending the Adams situation), Falcons and Cardinals.
On the other end, the Browns are only losing 5% of their fantasy output (from WR/TE/RB only) — and they just added a star WR in Amari Cooper. This either means Cooper will hardy be fed the ball or that the team will move on from Jarvis Landry.
The Bills are set for a great run-it-back season in 2022, as only 13% of their total fantasy points scored last season are leaving via free agency.
