Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 NFL draft is here, and it’s time for the new rookie class to take the league by storm. But new rookies means veterans are about to lose snaps, targets and rushing attempts to rookies.
As we do every year, we’re going to examine each team’s “vacated opportunity” leading into the draft (we first published this piece before free agency – now we’re updating it). The charts below will show you how many opportunities and yards are “available” leading into the draft (using 2023 stats).
Teams With the Most Vacated Target Share and Receiving Yard Share
These are the teams that have the most receiving work available pre-draft.
| Team | Vacated Targets | Vacated Rec. Yards |
| LA Chargers | 250 | 1,790 |
| Buffalo | 173 | 1,369 |
| Dallas | 139 | 861 |
| Arizona | 126 | 569 |
| Washington | 91 | 722 |
| NY Jets | 69 | 192 |
| Detroit | 67 | 657 |
| Pittsburgh | 63 | 565 |
| Indianapolis | 60 | 300 |
| Las Vegas | 52 | 447 |
| Denver | 48 | 238 |
| Jacksonville | 40 | 187 |
| Seattle | 38 | 170 |
| LA Rams | 36 | 140 |
| Minnesota | 32 | 315 |
| Baltimore | 29 | 441 |
| Green Bay | 22 | 70 |
| Tampa Bay | 16 | 173 |
| Cincinnati | 8 | 52 |
| NY Giants | 4 | -28 |
| San Francisco | 1 | 132 |
| Atlanta | -17 | 16 |
| New Orleans | -36 | -294 |
| New England | -45 | -276 |
| Miami | -45 | -326 |
| Philadelphia | -47 | -229 |
| Carolina | -71 | -723 |
| Cleveland | -88 | -740 |
| Kansas City | -106 | -458 |
| Tennessee | -140 | -716 |
| Chicago | -164 | -1,297 |
| Houston | -182 | -1,335 |
The three teams with the most vacated receiving work — the Chargers, Bills and Cowboys— all have good-to-elite QBs. Those are the teams to circle.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Bears have loaded up and will give Caleb Williams a surplus to work with. The Chiefs have taken a similar approach, but for different reasons.
Teams with the Most Vacated Rush Yards
These are the teams that have the most rushing work available pre-draft.
| Team | Vacated Rushes | Vacated Rush Yards |
| Dallas | 267 | 1,061 |
| Indianapolis | 224 | 919 |
| LA Rams | 107 | 319 |
| Denver | 80 | 341 |
| NY Jets | 75 | 230 |
| Cincinnati | 74 | 240 |
| Atlanta | 57 | 136 |
| Las Vegas | 37 | 33 |
| Arizona | 34 | 201 |
| New Orleans | 28 | 91 |
| NY Giants | 25 | 119 |
| Tampa Bay | 24 | 42 |
| Chicago | 22 | 86 |
| Miami | 18 | 106 |
| Carolina | 8 | 21 |
| Detroit | 6 | -4 |
| Tennessee | -3 | 89 |
| Buffalo | -6 | -121 |
| Green Bay | -15 | 237 |
| Houston | -19 | -55 |
| Jacksonville | -22 | -86 |
| LA Chargers | -25 | -223 |
| Seattle | -45 | -268 |
| Philadelphia | -48 | 98 |
| Kansas City | -57 | -151 |
| New England | -63 | -221 |
| Minnesota | -68 | -339 |
| Washington | -69 | -125 |
| San Francisco | -82 | -502 |
| Baltimore | -93 | -361 |
| Cleveland | -105 | -418 |
| Pittsburgh | -198 | -1,038 |
Pittsburgh is a little misleading, since Justin Fields’ rush attempts and yards count toward the total here. But if he’s the starter, it’s certainly something to monitor.
The Cowboys find themselves at or near the top of both lists. It really underscores how big Tony Pollard was for this offense last year.
