Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the fantasy football season rolls on situations change quickly week to week. Whether injuries, totals, game scripts, etc. the NFL landscape is constantly evolving. To help diagnose those changes weekly for fantasy football, I’ll highlight them using our amazing split tool.
Let’s get to the top three for Week 2.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
The over/under for Sunday’s game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers currently sits at 49. In high-scoring affairs over the last two seasons, the Packers have leaned on Jones. In games in which the Packers have played in with an over/under of 47 or greater, Jones has averaged 22.7 DraftKings points per game. Jones played 74% of the snaps last week, and while Jamaal Williams was involved, Jones didn’t leave the field. The Packers ran 21 personnel at the third-highest rate (17%). The Lions are a fantastic matchup for the Packers to exploit with Jones. At $7,100 on DraftKings, Jones is mispriced for his role and the matchup.
Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Cooper’s home/road splits are a real deal since arriving in Dallas. This week against the Falcons, in what looks like a fast-paced shootout on paper, Cooper is set to crush at home. Cooper will matchup against A.J. Terrell, who allowed all six of the targets in his coverage to be secured last week. Terrell allowed 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. Cooper’s matchup with Terrell is the sixth-best of the slate per our WR/CB tool. Cooper is set for liftoff this week.
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Over the last three seasons, Jack Doyle has missed nine games, and in those contests, Hilton has crushed the opposition. Doyle missed Wednesday and Thursday's practices with knee and ankle injuries. Hilton's matchup in this game is juicy against Cameron Dantzler. Dantzler has been banged up with a rib issue. If Dantzler plays, he has no hope of keeping pace with Hilton. Hilton can burn past Dantzler in the open field with his 4.3 speed matching Dantzler's 4.6 forty time.
