Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry.
Here are some details on the Week 11 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 11 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 11’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
CeeDee Lamb/Brandin Cooks/Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys, and Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
As the WR25, Bryce Young’s favorite target in Adam Thielen is basically available for free, but it doesn’t exactly make sense to play him as a standalone option. Outside of their pathetic performance earlier this season against the Cardinals, they’ve generally easily dispatched their lesser competition, and it’s hard to see it any other way this week against the Panthers. If you’re lucky enough to be able to select CeeDee Lamb, I think he’s a great option to pair up with Thielen, but if not, my second-favorite option is probably Tony Pollard, who really has no excuse not to fall into the endzone against the Panthers and their 31st-ranked defense DVOA against the run. The last option for me would be Brandin Cooks, who is finally getting plenty of looks from Dak Prescott.
Kyler Murray and Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is back and looks pretty damn good for someone returning from a major knee injury. In his first game back, it was clear Trey McBride was his favorite target, targeting him nine times for eight catches and 131 yards. With the Texans offense in great form, I think Kyler might have to air it out in order to stay in the game, and if he does, the possibilities are endless for both he and McBride.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
This might seem like an absolutely crazy play, but with Jahmyr Gibbs finally unleashed, and the matchup against the Bears potentially being uncompetitive, I definitely see many scenarios where the Lions stick with their running game. They’ve shown numerous times this season where they take the pedal off the metal once they get off to a big lead, but they haven’t been able to do with a healthy offensive line and healthy running back duo. The Bears actually have a pretty good run defense considering they are ranked sixth DVOA against the run compared to 29th DVOA against the pass, but they have still allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the RB position, including the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is being drafted as the QB8 in the Battle Royale this week. Like I said before, I think the Cardinals are likely to be playing from behind for most of the game and if that’s the case, we might see Kyler sling the ball as often as Sam Howell has been slinging it throughout the season. The QB options available for this slate isn’t exactly a deep group, so to be able to roster Kyler at less ownership than Justin Fields is pretty wild.
Devin Singletary, RB, Houston Texans
Devin Singletary is being drafted as the RB15 in the Battle Royale this week. With Dameon Pierce appearing unlikely to play again this week, it is going to be the Singletary show in the backfield for the Texans again. Singletary had his breakout game last week, getting 30 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown. The Cardinals have the 30th-ranked run defense DVOA and considering Singletary’s heavy usage last week, I don’t understand why he’s not being drafted in the majority of these Battle Royale’s.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf is being drafted as the WR18 in the Battle Royale this week. Metcalf has a pretty good history against the Rams, and that’s saying something considering he usually has had to face Jalen Ramsey more often than not. The Rams secondary has definitely struggled a ton throughout the season and they’ve had to move some pieces around to the point where their slot corner, Cobie Durant, has been playing on the right side in place of Derion Kendrick. The problem is that Durant matches up horribly against Metcalf considering he’s just 5-foot-11, 180 pounds. This matchup could give Metcalf an opportunity to put up a big performance against their division rival.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen is being drafted as the WR25 in the Battle Royale this week. As mentioned before, Thielen has been Bryce Young’s favorite target. I know the matchup against the Cowboys defense isn’t the greatest, but as Carolina’s slot receiver, he will have the best matchup, against a banged-up Jourdan Lewis, and will get plenty of targets in a situation where the Panthers are undoubtedly going to have to push the ball down the field.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
Luke Musgrave is being drafted as the TE10 in the Battle Royale this week. Once again, the options at TE are pretty minimal once you get past the big names, but I do like Musgrave this week, in a matchup against a Chargers team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the TE position.
