TwoGun’s NFL DFS and Betting Picks for the Super Bowl

Let’s all shed a tear for the end of the NFL season, but hopefully we’ll all have one last winning hurrah this Sunday. I’ll have a lot of money in play via DFS showdown lineups, so I can maybe, just maybe, bink a milly win before the end of the season.

Here are my favorite bets, props and showdown strategies for the Big Game.

Favorite Showdown Strategies

1. Lineup Construction

I really like the idea of differentiating with a 4-2 or 5-1 build and hoping one team dominates the other. Everyone thinks this game will be a close, offensive masterpiece. Perhaps it’s a defensive slugfest or one team blow out the other.

I don’t have a super strong opinion which team will initiate the beatdown but will be building for that outcome with both. Either way, I aim to have more unbalanced lineups and ones that do well in a low scoring game than the field. If the game ends 30-27, I’ll probably lose, but you never know.

I’ll post my near final rostership percentages and lineup constructions in Discord Sunday, but here are my current lineup constructions. I’ll likely build another lineup or two as a 5-1 as well:

2. Underweight Dallas Goedert/Xavier Worthy

Both players are good values and will be in some of my lineups, but they’ll be heavily over-rostered because of recency bias. For a showdown, it’s generally not worth feeling forced to use a player just because he’s a slightly better value unless your lineup is creative in other areas and he just happens to fit in the build.

3. DeAndre Hopkins

He’s a terrible value, and his role has been diminished with the return of Marquise Brown. Everyone knows this, so I don’t care. He’ll be sub-3% in a freaking showdown most likely, and he could easily be the highest-scoring sub-$5k player. I’ll continue my brand of blindly using him and having leverage on him vs. the field for one more week.

Favorite Game Bet: Under 48.5

If there’s one bet the public seems to agree on, it’s the over. Over bets are outnumbering unders by about a 3:1 margin on DraftKings Sportsbook, and most expect a high-scoring Super Bowl similar to ones of years past as well as the recent Conference Championship games.

I could definitely see this game going under though for a few reasons. First, Philly loves to run the ball, which just eats up the clock. Second, Patrick Mahomes‘ average depth of target has been very low in the playoffs, likely meaning a lot of short completed passes and long, clock eating drives. Finally, both teams have very strong, capable defenses, with the Eagles first in defensive DVOA and the Chiefs a respectable 12th.

Favorite Prop: Samaje Perine Over Receiving 6.5 Yards

This certainly isn’t an original idea of mine, as Sam Choudhury covered it in his article about the Super Bowl and Alex Blickle brought it up on our For The Milly show earlier this week. With Perine covering this in over 80% of the games played this season, I just don’t see why we should expect this game against the Eagles to see drastically reduced usage on his part. He’s the clear passing down specialist, and they seem to even script a target or two for him each game.