Trey Lance 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

Trey Lance’s 2022 prop bets might be the most difficult to handicap among all the NFL starting quarterbacks. The San Francisco 49ers are giving the keys to the offense to the 2021 No. 3 overall draft pick after he made just two starts as a rookie.

Lance has an over/under of 3,500.5 passing yards and 21.5 passing touchdowns at DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2022 regular season. The 22-year-old completed 41 of his 71 attempts last season for 603 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions and a 97.3 passer rating.

Making predictions about Lance is especially difficult because he hasn’t been a full-time starting quarterback in three years. Lance’s 2020 season at North Dakota State was wiped out because of COVID-19, and he backed up Jimmy Garoppolo as a rookie in 2021.

San Francisco quickly moved on from Garoppolo after being defeated by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2022 NFC Championship Game. The 49ers are fully invested in Lance. San Francisco traded two first-round picks and a third-rounder in order to move up and select the quarterback in last year’s draft. 

Lance isn’t taking over a team that finished near the bottom of the standings, which is usually the case for first-time starting quarterbacks. The 49ers have one of the NFL’s best rosters and expect to contend for a Super Bowl. While the first two picks of the 2021 draft started their careers under first-time NFL head coaches, Lance gets to play for one of the best offensive minds in football in Kyle Shanahan.

In his limited time under center, Lance showed flashes of being a franchise quarterback. Can he keep that up during his first full season?

Let’s take a look at the odds for Lance’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Trey Lance Prop Bets for 2022

Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.

How Many Passing Yards Will Trey Lance Have In 2022?

Over 3,500.5. Yards (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nobody really knows how Lance will perform in his first full season, but there were indications last year that he can be an average starter at the very least. The odds on Lance’s prop bet for passing yards make the over a worthwhile wager, given his high ceiling and the ideal situation that he finds himself in with the 49ers. 

Over the course of 17 games, Lance would have to average 205.9 yards per game in order to go over the total for his passing yards prop. Lance threw for 220.5 yards per game in his two starts as a rookie. When he relieved an injured Garoppolo at halftime in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks, Lance had 157 yards on just 18 attempts. 

Shanahan has gotten the best out of his quarterbacks in San Francisco. In his only two healthy seasons as San Francisco’s starter, Garoppolo had 3,978 passing yards and 3,810 passing yards. Garoppolo had a triple-digit passer rating in 2019, and he led the league in yards per completion last season. Nick Mullens even averaged close to 285 yards per game in eight starts in 2018. As long as Lance is competent, he can put up relatively impressive numbers. 

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Trey Lance Throw In 2022?

Over 21.5 TDs (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If Lance is going to throw for more than 3,500 yards, there’s a good chance that he’s totaling at least 22 touchdown passes in this offense. Although it was a small sample size, Lance’s touchdown percentage of 7% was identical to Aaron Rodgers’ league-high mark last season. In each of the last four seasons, 49ers quarterbacks have combined to throw at least 25 touchdown passes. 

Unlike some other second-year quarterbacks, Lance leads an offense that is loaded with weapons. Deebo Samuel was a top-five receiver in 2021, and his receptions could increase now that he’s made it clear that he prefers not to be used as a running back. An argument can be made that George Kittle is the NFL’s best tight end. Once Brandon Aiyuk came back into favor with the coaching staff last year, he ended the season with an average of 71.3 yards in the final eight games.

Because of Lance’s limited game action, San Francisco knows better than anyone if he’s the real deal. While Garoppolo isn’t a franchise quarterback, it says something that the 49ers are so willing to move on from a player who led them to the NFC Championship Game in two of the last three years and is popular within the locker room. Expect Lance to exceed outside expectations in 2022.

How to Bet Trey Lance Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Trey Lance’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 3,500.5 yards. The under has -135 odds, and the over has +110 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet. The number next to a plus sign shows how much money you would win by risking $100.

A winning $100 bet on Lance to throw over 3,500.5 yards would result in a profit of $110. In total, $210 should be added to your account, including a $110 profit and the $100 you originally wagered. A winning $135 bet on Lance’s under for passing yards would come with a $100 profit.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.