Top 5 Upside Players in Best Ball for 2021

What is upside in fantasy football? We love to talk about it but rarely define it, because it has so many use cases and it’s an easy out when trying to analyze a player. “He has a lot of speed so he’s got big play upside,” “he has a good matchup so he’s got weekly upside,” “he is a late-round pick so he has a lot of upside this season.”

While it’s a catchy word, it can be defined in many different ways and leaves analysts a lot of outs. For today, I am going to define it as players who have a chance to significantly outperform the ADP and provide league-winning upside if they hit their ceilings. I will give a player in different ranges of the draft I am targeting to maximize upside throughout the draft. One caveat: I am leaving out Michael Thomas and D.J. Moore, simply because I have written them up too many times this offseason and tjeu could make any list I put together this offseason.

All ADP information is from Underdog.

Antonio Gibson offers serious fantasy upside near the top of drafts

(ADP: 19.0)

Gibson came into the league with questions about how he would be able to handle an NFL workload at running back. He only had 33 career rush attempts in college, but the 4.39-speed, 228-pound back proved he could make the transition. Gibson improved as the year went on, averaging 5.05 yards per carry in his final six games after averaging 4.34 in his first eight. That is a big deal, as playing running back and running between the tackles was new for Gibson and seeing him get more comfortable could mean even bigger things in Year 2. It wasn’t only his yards per carry that improved; his yards before contact went up nearly a full yard from 2.44 to 3.40 while his yards after contact improved from 1.44 to 1.79 in the last five games of the season. The real way Gibson unlocks his upside is in the passing game, where he was used sparingly last year, but has the opportunity to dominate in this area. In college he averaged a ridiculous 11.2 yards per catch and in his rookie year he averaged 1.52 yards per route run, ninth among backs. Washington’s coaching staff has been talking all offseason about how his passing-game role is going to grow and they will even use him more at wide receiver. Last year, Gibson had four games with five or more targets and finished as a top-five back in two of them. When (not if) Gibson becomes more involved in the passing game, he has top-five upside at the position.

T.J. Hockenson is a big-time upside fantasy tight end option

(ADP: 60.5)

The tight end cupboard is bare — after Kelce and Darren Waller, the position fell off a cliff with Robert Tonyan being TE3 in 0.5 PPR scoring last season. Obviously, a healthy George Kittle adds depth to the position, but after the big three tight end is something of a waste land. Hockenson has an opportunity to change that. Two years removed from being the eighth overall pick, Hockenson is headed into Year 3 with the worst receiving group in the NFL and has a chance to lead his team in targets. Gone are the Lions’ top three receivers in Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola — even with all of them on the roster last year, Hockenson still led the Lions in first-read share at 20%. In fact, Hockenson was fifth among all tight ends in being the first read of a play and finished fifth at the position in total targets. Now he is playing with Quintez Cephus, Breshad Perriman, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyrell Williams and has a chance to increase his volume this season on a team that should be playing from behind frequently. He is playing with a new quarterback and new head coach so there is some unknown, but Dan Campbell is a former NFL tight end and highly unlikely to ignore the one talented pass catcher on the team. With a volume spike and his talent, Hockenson could end up as a top three tight end this year.

Mike Williams retains his fantasy football upside

(ADP: 94.4)

I’m high on Williams, but maybe not as high as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is: “If I were a betting man, I’d bet on nice numbers coming from him on the stat sheet, that’s for sure,” Lombardi said. Lombardi’s offense has a history of making the X receiver — the position Williams plays — a major part of the offense. While Williams only had 85 targets and caught 48 balls last season, he still finished with 756 yards and five touchdowns. He led the team in air yard share (28%) and end zone target share (25%). His role down the field requires a quarterback to have more time, and the Chargers have perhaps the league’s most improved offensive line, so Justin Herbert should have plenty of time to let Williams work down the field. Herbert had one of the greatest rookie seasons in NFL history, and if he takes the next step in his second year, Williams should smash his ADP.

Trey Lance offers huge fantasy upside as a rookie

(ADP: 120.1)

Here is the list of quarterbacks drafted top three to not start in their rookie year:

It doesn’t happen, and I don’t expect Lance to be the first. The 49ers traded up for Lance, and the day after the draft both Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah predicted Lance would be the first QB outside of the first two picks to start. Once Lance starts, he has Konami Code upside. Kyle Shanahan has had one QB with rushing ability in his career, and that year Robert Griffin rushed for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns. While Lance may not start from Week 1, as soon as he gets the gig, he will walk into an elite receiving corps of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel with the rushing upside that few quarterbacks in the league can rival. He has top-five weekly upside once he becomes the starter.

Mike Boone is a sneaky late-round fantasy RB

(ADP: 215.9)

This is a Best Ball Mania upside pick for zero-RB truthers. Boone is currently third on the depth chart in Denver but was new Broncos GM George Paton’s first free agent signing, bringing him over with him from Minnesota, and Boone is someone the coaching staff is said to be high on. He rarely gets drafted, so if he pops he will give your team a massive edge over the field … and his path to becoming relevant is a realistic one. Melvin Gordon signed a two-year contract last offseason and is on the books for $8.9 million this year, making him a potential camp cut. The first thing new GM did in the offseason was sign Boone, and then in the draft he traded up for Javonte Williams — Williams and Boone combine for just $3.9 million against the cap. Gordon missed OTAs and ran with the second unit in minicamp; that is troubling news for a veteran player. Head coach Vic Fangio said of Boone: “I think you have to throw Mike Boone in that when you talk about that position, too. … We’ll carve out a role for them. Obviously, Melvin is an established back in this league, played good for us last year, and we like him. We obviously like Williams and we like Boone. So you never have enough backs, and I’m confident that there will be enough work for all of them.” There is a path to significant playing time for the freak athlete with a 100th percentile burst score — at a price tag of “free.” That’s a lot of upside.