Top 5 Bust QBs for Fantasy Football in 2024

The first waves of NFL free agency have subsided, and teams are starting to shift into draft prep. The NFL draft is just over one month away, which puts OTAs and rookie camps just on the horizon.

Earlier in the offseason, FTN Fantasy looked at the quarterback sleepers to target in fantasy drafts heading into the 2024 season. Now, it is time to look at the quarterbacks who will likely bust heading into 2024. Check them out below.

A Quarterback in the Top 50 Picks

Last year was interesting for the quarterback position in the NFL. Injuries hit the position hard in 2023, which led to 66 different signal-callers getting a start. The group that found a way to stay healthiest (read as starting at least 16 games) was the early-round quarterbacks.

Undoubtedly, the premier quarterbacks will once again find their way into the early rounds of drafts based on their 2023 production and health. Fantasy managers planning on an early quarterback should consider the fact that there isn’t a clear advantage to selecting a quarterback in the early rounds.

2023 Scoring (PPR)

The quarterback and wide receiver positions each tied with five 20-plus-point scorers. However, the quarterback position had far more players finish with 17-19 fantasy points in 2023. That is significantly more than both the running back and wide receiver positions. Plenty of quarterbacks can provide stable fantasy production, but passing on potentially elite running backs or wide receivers made it far more difficult to hit a scoring ceiling.

Using the early rounds of the fantasy draft to fortify skill positions while grabbing a solid quarterback in the later rounds could yield much better results for fantasy managers in 2024, especially since 2023 was atypical given how many quarterbacks suffered injuries.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

There was plenty of excitement for the Chargers when Jim Harbaugh was hired as the team’s head coach. Harbaugh has won at every stop of his coaching career and is known as a quarterback-friendly coach, which led to a swell of hype for Justin Herbert. Based on the team’s offseason moves, fantasy managers would do best to ignore the hype.

The Chargers have gone about restructuring contracts and jettisoning pieces from a team that never quite got over the hump. That has been especially felt on offense, with the team cutting Mike Williams, trading Keenan Allen and not re-signing Austin Ekeler or Gerald Everett. The one big move the team has made on offense was signing thumper running back Gus Edwards.

Under Jim Harbaugh (and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman), the Chargers seem to be moving more to a ball-control, run-heavy offense. That doesn’t bode well for Herbert, who will likely have fewer pass attempts and will need to be more efficient throwing down the field with worse weapons.

Maybe Herbert is the first quarterback under Harbaugh/Roman to ever exceed 500 pass attempts, but even in that case, he will need either an infusion of talent on offense to help him overcome a shift in the offensive game plan. Regardless, Herbert will likely be priced as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy drafts thanks to his pedigree and three years of solid production and can probably be avoided at that price.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

The Miami offense will always be priced up so long as they have Mike McDaniel scheming up plays for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Naturally, that means Tua Tagovailoa will also go off the board as a QB1. That worked in 2023.

Tua finished the season as the QB9 in overall scoring thanks to his overall health. However, he was just the QB15 in fantasy points per game (16.9) among quarterbacks who made at least 10 starts. FTN Fantasy’s weekly fantasy finishes stat shows that Tua had fewer top-12 finishes than he did finishes outside the top-15 fantasy scorers.

Additionally, FTN fantasy’s advanced stats give reason to pause before drafting Tua in the middle rounds. In 2023, Tua completed 69.3% of his passes. However, that number dipped to just 49.5% when facing pressure. That is lower than quarterbacks like Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Desmond Ridder.

A bad cap situation forced the Dolphins to make tough decisions this offseason, specifically in the trenches. Miami moved on from starting center Connor Williams and starting guard Robert Hunt. Those losses should equate to more interior pressure for Tua in 2024, which will suppress his ability to take deep shots down the field.

Tua will certainly have boom weeks with all of the explosive weapons on Miami’s offense. However, opting for the rollercoaster of Tua’s production may not be outweighed by finding a steadier quarterback who can provide more consistent scoring.  

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson entered the NFL in 2023 as a very raw prospect with exceptional athletic ability. His combine performance pushed him up to the fourth overall pick for the Indianapolis Colts.

Richardson had some high points in his first season. In four games, he totaled 577 passing yards with three touchdowns while adding 136 rushing yards and four rushing scores. Not everything was great for him, though. Richardson had one interception and three fumbles in four games. FTN’s advanced stats also show that he struggled with deep passing (30% completion percentage on 10 attempts) and had issues completing passes against zone coverage.  

The most glaring issue for Richardson was his inability to stay healthy. Richardson played in four games during his rookie year. He didn’t finish three of them due to an injury. One of the injuries was minor (knee soreness in Week 1) and two of them were significant enough to force him to miss time (a concussion in Week 2 and his shoulder injury in Week 4). Richardson did not have the cleanest bill of health in college and has missed a lot of development time as a passer due to not being on the field.

The Colts exceeded expectations with Gardner Minshew under center, which will undoubtedly push Richardson up in fantasy drafts in 2024. Richardson is arguably the best athlete we have ever seen at the quarterback position, and if he can properly develop, he could break fantasy for years to come.

Fantasy managers need to be wary of pushing him up into the top five quarterbacks drafted given his rawness as a passer and aptitude for injury.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence has been a solid quarterback (especially in the context of his draft class) since being drafted in 2021. But through three seasons, he has not developed into the generational quarterback we have expected both in real life and fantasy football.

Lawrence seemed poised to take a big step after a successful 2022 season that saw him complete 66.3% of his passes for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. The Jaguars made a surprise playoff appearance and added Calvin Ridley to a passing attack that included Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Zay Jones.

In 2023, Lawrence regressed. He completed a lower percentage of passes (65.6) for fewer yards (4,016) and had fewer touchdowns (21). He also saw his interception total jump to 14. FTN’s passing efficiency tool shows that Lawrence finished tied for fourth in interception-worthy throws (22) with Desmond Ridder and Gardner Minshew, behind only Sam Howell (32), Mac Jones (26) and Josh Allen (25). He also finished with the second-most pass attempts to his first read, which highlights his struggles playing outside of structure.

The Jaguars have made minor changes on offense this offseason, upgrading the center position with Mitch Morse and swapping Ridley (and his drop struggles) with Gabe Davis (and his history of drop struggles). Aside from that, his supporting cast (and coaching staff) will be the same.

Lawrence finished 2023 with 17.3 fantasy points per game, which was good for a QB13 finish (minimum 10 starts). At this point, that may just be who he is – a quarterback who is good, but not great, playing within structure.