Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions Week 8 Odds
- Bet: Eagles -3.5
- Odds: -105
These are two bad teams, so the public is unsurprisingly taking the points with the Lions. They’ve received 74% of the spread bets, making them a massive public underdog.
Typically, backing the team getting points when two bad teams square off is a wise decision. When two teams with a win percentage of 33% or less meet up after Week 3, the underdog has posted a record of 155-135-6 against the spread.
That said, the Eagles have actually garnered some sharp support in this contest. They’ve received 37% of the spread dollars, which has pushed this line off the key number of three across the industry.
It’s possible that the Eagles are better than their current record indicates. They rank 21st in Football Outsiders DVOA, which puts them ahead of teams like the Broncos, Bears and Panthers. They’ve outperformed their Pythagorean Win expectation by nearly a full win, but they’ve played a tough schedule. Their five losses have come against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Raiders, and all of those teams have playoff aspirations. The Lions represent a clear step down in competition, so they might be able to get back on track.
The best price you can currently find on the Eagles is -3.5 (-105), which is available at DraftKings.
Pick: Eagles -3.5 (-105)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Week 8 Odds
- Bet: Falcons Moneyline
- Odds: -155
The Panthers started the year at 3-0, but that feels like a million years ago at this point. They have regressed badly over their past four games, particularly at the quarterback position.
The Panthers have to be kicking themselves about the Sam Darnold trade. They gave up three draft picks to get him — including a second-rounder next year — but he has shown no signs of improvement from his tenure with the Jets. He’s averaged a horrendous 3.96 adjusted yards per attempt over his last four weeks to go along with eight turnovers. If anything, Darnold’s numbers with the Panthers are worse than they were in New York.
Making matters worse, the Panthers had a perfectly fine quarterback already on the roster in Teddy Bridgewater, and they gave him away for basically nothing. They also passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the draft. Neither of those feel like a franchise-defining mistake at the moment, but there’s still plenty of time for those players to make the Panthers look foolish.
Meanwhile, the Falcons offense has quietly been rolling of late. They’ve scored at least 27 points in three straight weeks, and tight end Kyle Pitts has started to live up to his massive potential. He’s exploded for 16 catches, 282 yards, and one touchdown over the past two weeks.
The Panthers have done a good job against opposing tight ends this year, so it might be Calvin Ridley’s turn for a big game. The Panthers rank just 29th in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers, so it’s an elite matchup for Ridley to get right.
The Falcons have received the majority of the spread bets and dollars in this matchup, but they’re currently sitting at the key number of three. If you want to avoid the spread and opt for the moneyline, the best price is currently available on DraftKings.
Pick: Falcons ML (-155)
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers Week 8 Odds
- Bet: Under 49.5
- Odds: -110
This number is at 49.0 across most of the industry, but you can grab the under at 49.5 on DraftKings. The under is a preferred target for the sharps this week, receiving 92% of the total dollars on just 36% of the bets. That’s a massive discrepancy.
The Chargers rank first in the league in situation-neutral pace, but the Patriots have the potential to slow them way down. They’re significantly slower, and they should be able to put together some long, sustained drives against. the Chargers defense.
The Chargers D has been one of the worst units in the league this season, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA. The Patriots are essentially league average in terms of run rate, but they could choose to lean on that unit in this matchup. They’ve had their rushing attack working recently, logging at least 120 rushing yards in each of their past three games.
Overall, the first five Patriots’ games all went under 49.5 points, so I’m expecting this game to be lower-scoring than expected.
Pick: Under 49.5
