Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For my best Week 7 bets — and, really, ALL my NFL bets — check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks Week 7 Odds
- Bet: Saints -4
- Odds: -110
I bet this Sunday night at -3, but I like it to -5.5.
It’s currently at -4.5 across the industry, so there’s a little line-shopping value in getting it at -4.
My thesis for backing the Saints is simple:
- The Saints have extra rest off the bye.
- The Seahawks have slightly shorter rest off Sunday Night Football last week.
- Saints head coach Sean Payton is 12-5 against the spread without quarterback Drew Brees.
- Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll looked lost last week without quarterback Russell Wilson (finger, IR) and is a mediocre 18-16-1 ATS without him.
The Saints defense is No. 4 in expected points added per play (-0.090) and No. 5 in dropback EPA per play (-0.055, per Ben Baldwin’s RBs Don’t Matter website). Seahawks backup quarterback Geno Smith has 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt with the Seahawks and 5.7 AY/A for his career.
I’ll take the team with a good defense and a coach who can cover with non-elite quarterbacks against the team with a coach who has no idea what he’s doing on offense and is starting a former Jets quarterback.
Pick: Saints -4.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Week 7 odds
- Bet: Rams Moneyline
- Odds: -1000
I want to be very clear about this: I’m not betting 10 units to win one unit — because that would be ridiculous — but I do see some probabilistic value in this line.
At -1000, the Rams have a 90.9% implied chance to win this game, but I put the true odds at closer to 95%.
On top of that, there’s definitely line-shopping value to be had with this line, which is -1100 at PointsBet, -1200 at FanDuel, and -1429 at BetMGM.
The Lions are 0-6, and this is a #RevengeGame for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and for the Rams organization as a whole against former quarterback Jared Goff.
On the moneyline, Goff is 0-13 with any coach other than Rams head coach Sean McVay. Framed differently: Goff-sans-McVay faders are undefeated betting against him (+6.8 units).
Meanwhile, McVay is 7-2 (+3.0 units) on the moneyline with any quarterback other than Goff.
In our official FTN Power Rankings, the Rams are the top team in the NFC; the Lions, the lowest.
The Rams offense is No. 1 in dropback EPA per play (0.373), and the Lions defense is No. 32 (0.364).
The Rams are not losing this game.
Pick: Rams -1000
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team Week 7 odds
- Bet: Over 47.5
- Odds: -110, FanDuel
I expect the Packers to put up points.
Forget what the Packers did — or didn’t — do in their 38-3 Week 1 road loss to the Saints. That’s ancient history, and sometimes fluky stuff happens in season openers.
Since Week 2, the Packers are No. 3 in offensive EPA per play (0.187) and No. 2 in offensive dropback EPA per play (0.327), and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is No. 1 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.226, per Baldwin).
Offensively, the Packers are dominating right now, especially in the passing game — and the Football Team is vulnerable on defense, ranking No. 30 in EPA per play (0.166) and dropback EPA per play (0.304).
On the other side of the ball, the Football Team is dealing with injuries — but No. 1 wide receiver Terry McLaurin (hamstring) practiced fully on Friday, so he’s ready to go, and the Packers defense will be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder, IR), and No. 2 cornerback Kevin King (shoulder) is dealing with an injury of his own.
I don’t expect offensive fireworks from the Football Team, but they should be able to put up enough points to help the Packers drive this game to the over.
The Football Team has a 4-2 over/under record this year, and Rodgers has a 57-48 over/under record at home for his career.
Pick: Over 47.5
