Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals, and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to line shop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Championship Round Odds
- Bet: Chiefs -7.0
- Odds: -120
This line has slowly crept up to Chiefs -7.5, but you can still grab the Chiefs at -7.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook. They are juiced up to -120, but the difference between -7.0 and -7.5 is massive. Seven is a key number in NFL betting, so getting the hook is worth the extra juice in my opinion.
The Bengals were able to secure a 34-31 win over the Chiefs in their regular-season matchup, but that game was played in Cincinnati. The AFC Championship will be played in Kansas City, just like it has been in each of the past three seasons.
Despite their head-to-head loss, the Chiefs were clearly the better team during the regular season. They finished with more Pythagorean wins, and they also have a sizable edge in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Chiefs rank fifth in that department, while the Bengals are merely 16th. If we focus on weighted DVOA – which weighs the games that happen later in the season as more meaningful than the earlier contests – the gap is even wider.
These two teams also had wildly different results last week. The Chiefs’ offense had a field day in a tough matchup with the Bills, finishing with 42 points and 552 total yards. The Bengals finished with just 19 points, and Joe Burrow was sacked a whopping nine times. If not for Ryan Tannehill’s dreadful performance, it’s very possible that the Bengals would be watching from home instead of playing this week.
Ultimately, the Chiefs’ offense should have no problems putting plenty of points on the scoreboard. The Bengals will need to keep up if they’re hoping to cover that number, and it remains to be seen whether that’s possible given the state of their offensive line.
Pick: Chiefs -7.0
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs Championship Round Odds
- Bet: Over 54.5
- Odds: -115
This is a pretty massive number, but a 54.5-point total is nothing when the Chiefs are involved. They’ve put up 42 points in back-to-back weeks, and there’s no reason they can’t do it again against the Bengals. Cincinnati finished the regular season ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA, so they’re a significantly easier matchup than what Patrick Mahomes has faced the past two weeks.
The Chiefs’ offense was also absolutely rolling to end the regular season. They scored at least 28 points in each of their final five regular-season games, and they averaged 35.4 points per game over that time frame.
Overall, the over has gone 6-4 in postseason games involving the Chiefs over the past four years.
If the Chiefs can get into the 30s in this contest, it’s reasonable to ask the Bengals to get us the rest of the way there. They hung 34 points on Kansas City during the regular season, and it’s undoubtedly a good matchup for Burrow if they can protect him. The Chiefs love to play man coverage, and that is simply not a good strategy against Burrow and the Bengals. Burrow thrives against man coverage, and the Chiefs had no answer for the dynamic Ja’Marr Chase.
The best part about betting the over in games like this is that you are basically never dead. Neither of the Chiefs’ past two games got off to great starts, but that didn’t stop either contest from flying over the total. If the Chiefs have the ball late and they need points, they’ve proven that they can put them on the board quickly.
Pick: Over 54.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Championship Round Odds
- Bet: 49ers ML
- Odds: +155
The 49ers are listed as 3.5-point underdogs across the industry, but their moneyline odds are a bit different from book to book. Their best price is +155, which you can find at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has caught some heat for his play during the postseason, and it has been deserved. Fortunately, that hasn’t really mattered. The 49ers are able to win games with their rushing attack and defense, which has been their formula for years.
The Rams set up as an excellent matchup for them. They dominated in their first regular-season meeting this season, and they were able to win outright on the road as well. Most folks remember that win due to the massive comeback, but the 49ers crushed the Rams in terms of yardage. They outgained their division rivals 449 to 265, and winning the yardage battle that heavily almost always leads to wins.
The big x-factor is the health of star left tackle Trent Williams, who is currently questionable with an ankle sprain. If he’s able to suit up, I like the Niners’ chances of pulling off the upset. I prefer grabbing the +3.5 for a bit of extra security, but the +155 odds on the moneyline are tasty.
Pick: 49ers ML
