Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Week 14 Odds
- Bet: Packers -11.5
- Odds: -110
I don’t normally consider large favorites – especially in divisional matchups – but the Packers warrant some attention this week. They’ve moved to -12 or -12.5 at certain locations, but you can still grab them at -11.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers has put together another strong season, and he remains one of the best in the business at home. He’s a ridiculous 58-32-3 against the spread as a home favorite during the regular season, including a perfect 4-0 this year.
Rodgers also benefits from having additional time to prepare coming off a bye week. Unsurprisingly, Rodgers has also thrived in that situation, posting a record of 15-8-2 ATS with at least 10 days off. Favorites in general tend to do well with extra time to prepare, so Rodgers is clearly dangerous in this spot.
Finally, don’t forget Rodgers’ message to Bears’ fans in his last outing: He owns them. Rodgers has posted a record of 19-7 against the spread against the Bears, making them easily his most profitable opponent. A $100 bettor would be up more than $1,100 betting Rodgers every time he faces the Bears during the regular season.
Add all these trends together, and there are plenty of reasons to support the Packers in this spot.
Pick: Packers -11.5
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Week 14 Odds
- Bet: Browns ML
- Odds: -140
The Browns have garnered heavy sharp support this week, which has caused the line to move to Browns -3.0 across the industry. With that in mind, you might want to consider taking the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can get the Browns at -140, but they’re closer to -150 across the rest of the market. That way, you’re still getting solid value, and you cover instead of push in the event that the Browns win by a field goal.
The Browns haven’t been great this season – especially on offense – but they’re arguably still better than the Ravens. The Ravens own the better record at 8-4, but that overstates how well they’ve played this year.
The Ravens lost to the slumping Steelers last week, and some of the advanced metrics suggest they’re much worse than their record indicates. They rank just 16th in Football Outsiders DVOA, and they own a Pythagorean Win Expectation of just 6.6-5.4.
The Ravens also have some incredibly fortunate wins on their resume. They beat the Lions thanks to a 66-yard field goal from Justin Tucker as time expired. They overcame a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit vs. the Colts. If not for those two improbable wins, the perception of the Ravens would be a lot different.
The Browns stand out as one of the best bets of the week, either on the moneyline or on the spread.
Pick: Browns ML
New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers Week 14 Odds
- Bet: Under 43.0
- Odds: -110
The total on this game has experienced some significant movement this week. It was listed at 47.0 on the advanced spread, and it opened at 44.5 this week. It has been bet down to just 43.0 across most of the industry, including on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Chargers’ offense is capable of putting points on the scoreboard, but they could struggle a bit more than expected against the Giants. New York has been strong against the pass this season, ranking eighth in pass defense DVOA, and its biggest struggles have come against the run. The Chargers are not the type of team to exploit that weakness.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is in shambles. Daniel Jones and Kadarius Toney have already been ruled out, and Mike Glennon, Kenny Golladay and Sterling Shepard are questionable. It seems like all three of those players will ultimately suit up, but there’s no guarantee that leads to offensive production. Glennon put just nine points on the scoreboard last week, and there’s a reason he’s a backup quarterback.
If Glennon doesn’t suit up, Jake Fromm will make his first career start. He was on the Bills’ practice squad just last month, so that would represent a significant downgrade.
Either way, expect points to be at a premium in this matchup.
Pick: Under 43.0
