Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%:
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 5
1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Few teams have been as pass-happy as the Bengals to start the season, and their pass rate could go into hyper-drive this week. Baltimore is third in adjusted line yards allowed and has held opposing RBs to 24% less production than average. Essentially the only way to attack them has been to spread them out and pepper WR1s and TEs with targets. With Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, few teams are more equipped to take this approach.
In fact, one of the biggest reasons for the decline in passing this season is the inability of many teams to protect their QB. As sack rates and pressure rates increase, teams are afraid to drop back too much. But again, this is less of a concern for Cincinnati. Burrow has been pressured at the second-lowest rate in the league and Baltimore is only 18th in pressure rate created.
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