Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my Top 10 plays under 10% for Week 4:
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 4
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Good luck to me Sunday morning talking TwoGun out of playing 100% Deshaun Watson after writing him up myself!
In all seriousness, Watson makes a ton of sense. Earlier this week I wrote about the relationship between pressure rates and the decline of passing offense. Well, Las Vegas is 25th in pressure rate and 26th in adjusted sack rate. The Browns miss Nick Chubb in the run game, and this is a matchup where they should be a little more comfortable posting a high pass rate since it’s less likely to result in Watson taking a million sacks (he still might).
Watson stinks, but he still has slate-breaking upside from a fantasy perspective.
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