NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% owned receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%. I’ll warn you ahead of time — there are a lot of pricey players here, so we’re all going to be hunting for value together!
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 10
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings — StatsHub Special
Jacksonville entered the week allowing the second-most deep completions and the most deep receiving yards (by over a hundred before Baltimore allowed a billion of them to Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals):
This is a match made in heaven for Justin Jefferson, who we have projected for nearly five points more than any other WR. He also has the highest ceiling projection on the slate for any player at any position. It’s no surprise that he has the No. 1 GPP Score. He is currently projected for 12.5% SE ownership, but that could easily fall into the single digits if people prefer the BUF/IND game (which I’m guessing will steam — more on that in a bit).
Jefferson can be played as a one-off pivot off the chalkier Aaron Jones or within a Minnesota stack. Or… well, I’ll save that thought, too.
2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Another guy currently projected for double-digit rostership with the potential to slip through the cracks. Alvin Kamara will take more rostership, so Bijan Robinson’s will largely come down to whether people want both RBs in the same game or if they prefer taking just one of them.
Bijan’s role has been incredible — 14 catches in the last two games! His performance last week was overshadowed by the multi-TD performances, but it showed what an enormous ceiling he has when the TDs do come.
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