Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The word “GOAT” gets tossed around in the NFL a lot these days to the point where the term has almost lost its cache. There’s only one NFL GOAT, and he plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and that’s quarterback Tom Brady.
The latest Tom Brady odds and futures are up for the 2021 NFL season at BetMGM, and bettors can consider wagering on the 44-year-old for markets like NFL MVP odds, NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds, to lead the league in touchdown passes or passing yards and plenty more. After winning Super Bowl 55 and looking like he doesn’t age, you can’t count out Brady when it comes to any NFL odds.
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Let’s look at all the top NFL futures available for Tom Brady odds and see if we can identify the best angle to put some cash in our pocket. If you think you can find better odds for Brady, check out the FTNBets Prop Shop to see the different sportsbooks available in your state.
Tom Brady NFL MVP odds
+1400, BetMGM
Although Tom Brady has a few NFL MVP trophies already in his career, I think the ship has sailed on considering him as the best player in the NFL. While the end of the 2020 season couldn’t have gone better for the 44-year-old, the fact remains that he is still past his prime.
Sure, he did have some resurgent stats like passing touchdowns (40) and yards (4,633) in 2020 but few remember the early-season struggles of Brady and the Bucs. He also threw 12 interceptions, which were the most he’s thrown since 2011. This team can still be beaten and outside of passing, Brady doesn’t offer much else offensively. Unless he leads the league in passing touchdowns while simultaneously leading Tampa Bay to the best record in the NFL, he won’t win NFL MVP again in his career.
Tom Brady NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds
+2200, BetMGM
I wrote about NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds when previewing Patrick Mahomes and I stand by what I said: Don’t bother taking a quarterback for this award. OPOY is designed to allow skill players to still get a trophy too, since NFL MVP typically goes to quarterbacks. The only way Brady wins NFL OPOY is he would have to break the single-season touchdown passing record set by Peyton Manning. After attending Manning’s Hall of Fame induction, it would be poetic justice by Brady to break the record he once held again but I’m a coward and won’t be taking this bet.
Tom Brady — Most regular season passing yards
+900, BetMGM
As much as Brady is a quality passer, he isn’t a quarterback who typically ranks near the top of the NFL in passing yards each season. Yes, he finished third in the NFL last season with 4,633, but even that trailed Patrick Mahomes, who played one fewer game. Passing yards is all about game-flow, and with each game being so hard to predict on that front, I find it hard to believe Brady will be airing it out for deep balls as his arm strength has diminished. In his time in New England, Brady only led the NFL in passing yards once, back in 2007. This one is a hard pass for me.
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Tom Brady — Most regular season touchdown passes
+500, BetMGM
I’m intrigued by the idea of Brady leading the league in total passing touchdowns. His weapons at his disposal are truly remarkable with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, who are all threats in the red zone. After throwing 40 TDs last season, it’s insane to think there’s actually room for improvement but there is. Following a brief offseason with new teammates in 2020, this could be a situation where we see Brady feeling more comfortable with Bruce Arians’ offensive system. Another reason why this bet has value is with the amount of receiving depth Tampa Bay has, the passing train would just keep rolling if someone like Evans or Godwin went down to injury.
Tom Brady passing yards
O/U 4,725.5 (-110, BetMGM)
This one is tough, because I can argue either side of this passing yards total for Brady. On one hand, he’s only thrown for at least 4,726 yards three times in his career, and even his bounceback in Tampa Bay only yielded 4,633. On the other hand, with so many offensive weapons at his disposal and getting another season to learn the Buccaneers system, the 5,000-yard milestone isn’t as far-fetched as when he was playing in New England.
The stats and my gut tell me the over won’t cash because, much like the “most passing yards” prop, Brady’s deep ball isn’t what it once was. He’d need a lot of help from his receivers to break tackles and go for long runs. I’m taking the under here.
Tom Brady passing touchdowns
O/U 36.5 (-110, BetMGM)
I like over 36.5 touchdown passes for Tom Brady for the 2021 season because, unless the Bucs turn into a run-first team, I can’t see how the over doesn’t cash. He threw 40 touchdowns last season and struggled for portions of it by having three games with only one or fewer TD passes. Now, with the NFL expanding to a 17-game season and a line lower than what he accomplished last season? Sign me up for the over.
Tom Brady — Most regular season interceptions thrown
+5000, BetMGM
Interesting fact about Brady: 2020 was the first season of his career that he was in the top five of quarterbacks for total interceptions in a season. He had 12 last year, fifth in the NFL. There’s a reason the odds are +5000 with an implied probability of 2%. You’d be better served banking on a rookie quarterback to lead the NFL in interceptions because they are likely to be guaranteed to start every game such as Trevor Lawrence or Zach Wilson. The latter is +1100 to lead the NFL in interceptions and is someone I think is going to struggle in his first year.
