Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Considered the most talented quarterback in football, there’s no shortage of NFL futures and betting odds for Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes entering the 2021 season.
The fifth-year QB has taken the throne as the most coveted player in the league with his arm talent and unconventional throws that make him a human highlight-reel. Sportsbooks like BetMGM took notice of this too in offering the latest Patrick Mahomes odds for a plethora of NFL futures markets for the season. He’s at or near the top as the betting favorite for every offensive award available and bettors can also take a look at the FTNBets prop shop to see each angle they could potentially cash on Mahomes and his exploits.
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Let’s look at all the top NFL futures available at BetMGM for Patrick Mahomes odds and see if we can identify the best angle to put some cash in our pocket.
Patrick Mahomes NFL MVP Odds
+600 (betting favorite), BetMGM
Enough time has passed now that Mahomes needs to be seriously considered again for NFL MVP odds. Just because he’s the betting favorite doesn’t mean it’s a bad bet. After the 2018 season when he was a near-unanimous MVP winner, Mahomes has been hands-down the best quarterback in the league even if he hasn’t won any hardware since. Well, I think 2021 is where that changes because of how Super Bowl 55 went down. The narrative has shifted.
After going 14-2 last year with the Kansas City Chiefs while tossing 38 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, Mahomes still didn’t win NFL MVP because two players in Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen had better narratives. Rodgers leading Green Bay to the best record in the NFC and throwing 48 touchdowns while simultaneously giving the middle finger to Packers management was a great story. Allen, on the other hand, had finally led the Bills to contender status in the AFC and taking back the AFC East was a story most writers could get behind after New England’s long dominance of the division.
That’s why I think Mahomes (unless a different quarterback plays out of his mind) will be the 2021 NFL MVP, because there isn’t really a better narrative out there. A talented quarterback with eye-popping stats who just played in two consecutive Super Bowls and hasn’t won MVP in three years. Find me a better MVP redemption narrative story. I’ll wait.
Patrick Mahomes NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds
+1000 (second favorite behind Derrick Henry), BetMGM
When deciding between NFL MVP and NFL Offensive Player of the Year for Mahomes, it’s important to look at the history of winners for these two awards and see the trends. A quarterback has won it every year since 2013, and skill-position players rarely win NFL MVP unless they break records. While that is entirely possible, the only way I see Mahomes winning NFL OPOY is if he were to break Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 55 passing touchdowns. Not impossible, but not probable either.
Take Mahomes for NFL MVP instead at +600 if you are trying to decide between these NFL futures markets. There’s no way he’ll win NFL Offensive Player of the Year but not MVP.
Most regular season passing yards
+325 (betting favorite), BetMGM
I hate to use the term “lock” in sports betting, but if Mahomes plays at least 15 games, he’s going to lead the NFL in passing yards. He played 15 games last year and fell short of the passing yards title by just 80 to Deshaun Watson. I’d much prefer this bet than taking the over on his passing yards at 5025 because we get better value at +325 instead of -110.
Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns
O/U 40.5 (-110, BetMGM)
This one is tricky because while Mahomes has all the talent in the world and surrounding him to throw over 40 touchdown passes, he may not be playing enough to make it happen. Over the last two seasons, the Chiefs have a tendency to run up the score and be comfortable by the third quarter. When that happens, KC will let off the gas and just run the ball to kill the clock. I prefer the over 40.5 if I had a gun to my head but don’t love it.
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Most regular season passing touchdowns
+350 (betting favorite), BetMGM
Similar to the passing yards prop, I’d much rather take Mahomes at +350 to lead the league in passing touchdowns than trying to bank on a specific number like 40.5. He finished fourth last season behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson with 38 passing touchdowns, a full 10 TDs behind the leader (Rodgers). 2018 showed us what Mahomes is capable of when he’s let loose for a full season and after the Super Bowl 55 loss, I expect him to come out with a vengeance and remind bettors like myself who the best quarterback in the league is.
Patrick Mahomes passing yards
O/U 5,025 (-110, BetMGM)
Similar to O/U touchdown passes, I don’t love Mahomes to throw over 5,025 yards just because the Kansas City Chiefs are too good now. Since 2018, the Chiefs have been first or within the top five of the NFL in points per game in the first half. I bring that up because they tend to pounce on teams and then chill in the second half after they’re leading by three scores. Out of all the quarterbacks in the NFL, Mahomes is likely the safest bet to get there but don’t be shocked when the Chiefs are 15-2 in the standings when the season concludes, and the quarterback is sitting just under 5K.
Most regular season interceptions thrown
+8000, BetMGM
With 24 career interceptions in 46 regular season games, you’d be hard-pressed to find someone in your degenerate circle to endorse this bet. Even at Mahomes’ “worst” when he threw 12 picks in 2018, that still was tied for ninth-most in the NFL. He also just so happened to win MVP that year. Hard pass.
Most regular season rushing yards
+50000, BetMGM
Imagine? If you are serious about betting this, I also have some magic beans you may be interested in too. Donate to a charity instead of placing this bet.
