Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every Friday, FTNBets will bring you one NFL futures bet we are making for the upcoming 2023 season. Today’s bet is a player prop from next week’s NFL Thursday Night Football season opener between the Lions and Chiefs. You can find 2023 NFL projections for all players here at FTNFantasy. All of the available betting lines for next week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you are able to shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Week 1 Player Prop
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
(-114, BetRivers)
I’ve been backing Amon-Ra St. Brown throughout the preseason in best ball drafts, and I’m not stopping now.
St. Brown is the clear WR1 in a Lions offense that is one of the best in the NFL. Detroit averaged 26.6 PPG, finishing fifth among all NFL teams. He faces a Chiefs pass defense that only ranked 20th in pass DVOA and will be without their best pass rusher in All-Pro DT Chris Jones due to a holdout.
When it comes to wide receiver target share, St. Brown is among the NFL’s elite. Using our FTN Weekly Targets Chart, we see that St. Brown posted eight weeks with double-digits targets. He finished the year with 146 targets, ranking eighth among all wide receivers. St. Brown also carried the third-highest target rate among wide receivers. With explosive wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games of the season, St. Brown has the opportunity to increase that percentage even higher.
Kansas City’s pass defense has also enabled elite weekly production to opposing wideouts. Last year, the Chiefs allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, including a league-high 20 touchdowns. In a game that carries the highest Week 1 total (54 points), there should certainly be substantial passing opportunities for St. Brown throughout the game. The Chiefs led the NFL with 29.2 points per game, and the Lions pass defense was ninth worst in DVOA in 2022. This is a high-scoring environment, led by Kansas City’s league-best offense, with two defenses that should provide little resistance. I’m very comfortable backing Detroit’s WR1 to approach 100 receiving yards given his immense target share in the Lions offense.
This line varies from 75.5 to 77.5 yards. BetRivers has the lowest juice at -114, while PointsBet has the same total at -125. St. Brown had an incredible rookie season, posting 90 receptions and 912 receiving yards, while improving to 106 receptions and 1161 receiving yards as an NFL sophomore. I’m all-in on St. Brown in my fantasy drafts this season and expect him to start the 2023 season by beating this receiving yardage prop.
