Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We kick off Week 5 in the NFL with one of the best games of the weekend Thursday night. Fresh off their first loss of the season, the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are flying high after knocking off divisional rival San Francisco last weekend 28-21.
The Rams are 2-2 against the spread, with the total going over in each of their first four games played. The Seahawks are also 2-2 ATS but have only played over the total once in the first four weeks. Both teams are chasing the Cardinals, who lead the NFC West at 4-0. The Rams are one game behind at 3-1, and Seattle is a game behind that at 2-2 on the year.
A Seattle win here would put Arizona in first by 1.5 games early in what is probably the most balanced and toughest division in football.
Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for this game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
This game opened at Rams -1 and both teams being -105 or worse on the moneyline. It has moved slightly since then to Rams -2.5. On our video of the first look at the lines for Week 5, we projected a spread of -2 in this game, so the market has come up and even passed our projected number. From a betting standpoint, we are pretty much on market here and will be avoiding the spread bet at its current level. The time to get down on the Rams moneyline has also come and passed. When it first opened you could find it as low as -110 on BetMGM. Now you are looking at the -135 or worse range on every site according to our FTN NFL odds page that tracks the legal sports books.
As for the total here, we have seen some weakening of the opening number. Most places started this game at 54.5. Some have come down to 53.5 already, others have juiced the 54.5 to -120 for the under and +100 to the over. Los Angeles has been putting up points, even in their one loss. That is why they are 4-0 to the over so far this year. Seattle has given up an average of 25 points per game, while scoring slightly above that at 25.75. My number for this game is 53. If you can still find a 54.5 at even money, that is about the edge of where I would be willing to bet that under. Remember, unders are cashing at just shy of 59% on the season, so when in doubt I always shade that way anyway. With the number weakening, this is the side you want to be on. We are not far off from the market with our number here though, so do not chase it below 54 or pay more than -110, maybe -115. Anything beyond that and the value is sucked out of it.
Prop bets
Darrell Henderson anytime touchdown
+100, BetMGM
Darrell Henderson missed the game in Week 3 and has been limited this week in practice. That said, he is expected to play. I want to take his yardage prop too, but the books are slow to release that one. The Seahawks have given up over 100 yards on the ground in each of their first four games. You can absolutely pound the run against this defense. Henderson ran for over 100 yards in Week 4 on 19 carries, so a healthy Henderson is still the lead man in this backfield. He should eat against the Seahawks defense, which is partly why I like the under here and absolutely the reason I love him.
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Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown
-118, BetMGM
The Seattle defense is one of the worst in the league and will be the death of this team. Not only have they allowed 100-plus yards rushing to every opponent, but the only team they held under 300 yards passing was the Colts in Week 1. The days of deciding between Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks as the top Rams WR are long gone. Cooks is a Texan, and with Matthew Stafford under center, the pecking order is very clear at the top with Kupp being the favorite target.
Chris Carson over 53.5 rushing yards
-108, FanDuel Sportsbook
With the exception of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay buccaneers, every team so far has agreed that the way to attack this Rams defense has been with the run. Arizona, Indianapolis and Chicago all ran for over 100 yards against the Rams defense. The latter two did so despite trailing for major portions of that game. Chris Carson has seen more than twice as many snaps as any other Seattle RB and has almost four times the touches through four games. He should end up with around 15 touches in this game, maybe even more if the Seahawks wind up with a lead to protect late. (For those concerned about Carson missing practice Tuesday, he was questionable last week and played. Unless/until he’s downgraded, I’m not worried.)
