Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022 NFL free agency period is nearly here, and we’ll see plenty of veterans find new homes once the dust settles.
We’ve revealed the ideal landing spots from a fantasy perspective, but what does the historical data tell us about players going to new teams?
Using FTN Data, we reviewed every player from 2010 to 2021 that played on a new team and compared Year N (their final season with their current team) to Year N+1 (their first season with a new team).
To get rid of the riffraff, we only included players that scored at least 5 fantasy PPG both seasons.
QBs on a New Team
|
PPG – Final Year, Old Team |
PPG – First Year, New Team |
|
14.7 |
14.6 |
Survey says: No real difference.
The biggest winners over the last decade were Cam Newton (increased his PPG by 7 his first year with the Patriots) and Ryan Tannehill (increased his PPG by 6 his first year with the Titans), and Newton’s comes with a big caveat, as he was injured for much of his final season in Carolina.
Tom Brady also saw his fantasy PPG shoot up by 5 whole points by joining the Buccaneers in 2020, and Alex Smith found new life when he joined the Chiefs in 2013.
On the whole, though, there are as many losers as winners here, and it evens out to a net of no change.
RBs on a New Team
|
PPG – Final Year, Old Team |
PPG – First Year, New Team |
|
11.1 |
10.3 |
RBs are the position that see the biggest decrease in production after landing on a new team. This supports the widely held theory that second contracts are rarely good for RBs.
DeMarco Murray is the poster child of this, dropping from 24.5 PPG to 12.6 PPG after signing a mega deal with the Eagles in 2015.
Other losers included Chris Johnson joining the Jets (I forgot that happened too, don’t worry), LeGarrette Blount joining the Eagles, Le’Veon Bell joining the Jets, and more.
There are, of course, successes too, but most of those have come in the form of a player who was not already a star joining a new team and given increased opportunity.
WRs on a New Team
|
PPG – Final Year, Old Team |
PPG – First Year, New Team |
|
10.6 |
10.7 |
Like QBs, there’s little change to WRs joining a new team.
They are, however, the only position that scored more fantasy PPG with their new team than with their old. (It’s only 0.1 extra PPG, so it doesn’t feel like it counts, but pointing it out anyway.)
Brandon Marshall joining the Jets was a big win in 2015. Robert Woods may be the biggest poster child for success, though, as he went from a fantasy afterthought with the Bills to a stud with the Rams overnight.
A team’s WR2 is often given a chance to be another team’s WR1 in free agency, too. That’s where you can find the biggest potential winners.
TEs on a New Team
|
PPG – Final Year, Old Team |
PPG – First Year, New Team |
|
8.8 |
8.7 |
There was no real change here. Eric Ebron is the best recent example of a success, as he went big time with Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2018 after being irrelevant in Detroit.
