Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers game for Week 9.
Week 9 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT -3, O/U 36.5
Pace: TEN: 30.8 sec/snap (32nd), PIT: 27.0 sec/snap (13th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Diontae Johnson has a 31% target share over the last two weeks.
- He has been targeted on 27% of his routes during that span.
- Will Levis posted an aDOT of 12.4 yards in his first career start Sunday.
- The Steelers allow the third-highest aDOT in football this season (9.3 yards).
- Tyjae Spears has played 81.2% of Tennessee’s third downs.
Quarterback
That felt personal. After falling in the NFL Draft, Will Levis had to wait some more during the regular season. But with Ryan Tannehill sidelined, the rookie finally got his opportunity in Week 8 and did not waste it. Levis completed 19-of-29 passes for 238 yards and four touchdowns Sunday. He showcased the tremendous arm talent that put him on the map in college, throwing three touchdown passes of 20-plus yards. He posted a massive 12.4-yard aDOT, with 28.6% of his attempts traveling 20-plus yards, the highest rate among all quarterbacks in Week 8. Levis also averaged almost 11 intended air yards per pass attempt, which is a complete 180 from what this passing attack has looked like. Levis will start again Thursday and will be a viable QB2, especially with Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff on bye and Kirk Cousins and Justin Fields sidelined. If the pass rush doesn’t get home, the Steelers will allow explosive pass plays, surrendering the third-highest aDOT in the league (9.3 yards). They have also allowed the fifth-most touchdowns (4) on passes 20-plus air yards, while almost 14% of the passes against them have been deep.
Running Back
Well, Derrick Henry did not get traded. With the Titans playing in a neutral gamescript last week, Henry got the volume, carrying the ball 22 times for 101 yards, while adding a rare four receptions. In the two games that were decided by 1-6 points this year, Henry is averaging 23.5 carries per game, while he also saw 22 carries in a 24-point win over the Bengals. But in the games that weren’t decided by 1-6 points, he is only averaging 14.5 carries per game. This should be a 20-plus carry game for Henry against a Steelers defense that is coughing up a league-leading 2.96 yards after contact per rush, which certainly isn’t ideal when you are facing Henry. The return of Cameron Heyward should definitely help this run defense, but Henry remains a top-12 fantasy running back this week.
Wide Receiver
I think DeAndre Hopkins enjoys Levis at quarterback. After a slow start to the year, Hopkins exploded for 128 yards and three touchdowns Sunday. You obviously shouldn’t expect this production each week, while I do expect Levis’ efficiency on deep passes to come back down to earth. But his 21% target share from a week ago was also the lowest in a game this season, so there is certainly room for Hopkins to see much more than six targets. He draws a great matchup to keep it going this week, facing a Steelers secondary that is allowing over 8.0 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season, as well as almost 15 yards per reception. Meanwhile, opposing top wide receivers are averaging 92.5 receiving yards per game against the Steelers, the fourth-most in the league. Hopkins is a low-end WR2 with both upside and risk.
Tight End
Chigoziem Okonkwo has seen solid target totals as of late, drawing 9, 4 and 6 targets over the last three games. However, it hasn’t translated to much fantasy production. His overall metrics are solid, as he’s run a route on over 70% of dropbacks, while sporting a respectable 17% target share. And perhaps Levis can unlock this passing game a bit more than Tannehill. Unfortunately, the Steelers are allowing just 8.6 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, the fourth fewest in the league. Okonkwo is in the TE20 range for me.
Quarterback
Kenny Pickett left last week’s game with a rib injury — he’s been limited in practice, but the expectation is that he’ll play Thursday. Even with four teams on bye, Pickett is hardly on the fantasy radar outside of superflex formats. He has failed to throw a touchdown in three games this season, while his 0.35 fantasy points per dropback ranks 27th among qualified signal callers. Tennessee is allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) so this is a solid spot, but Pickett is a middling QB2 at best.
Running Back
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are both uninspiring flex plays most weeks, especially here. Harris is still the 1A, despite how much the fantasy community wants Warren to take the starting job. He is playing 53% of the snaps to 46% for Warren, averaging 13.8 touches per game to 10.1 for Warren. Poor efficiency and low volume is not a recipe for success for any running back, but especially running backs who are set to face Tennessee’s vaunted run defense. The Titans are allowing just 83.7 rushing yards per game to entire backfields this season, while the only running back to eclipse 65 rushing yards against them has been Zack Moss, who had a massive outlier performance. Warren, meanwhile, has 16 total touches over the last two weeks, while his passing game usage could come down with the return of Diontae Johnson.
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson has been back in the lineup for two weeks now. During that stretch, he has a 31% target share, while seeing a target on a healthy 27% of his routes. Johnson has 20 targets over the last two weeks and has returned to his role of clear WR1 for the Steelers. Yes, he still hasn’t found the end zone but did see an end zone target last week. He actually has 50% of the team’s end zone looks since Week 7 and should be viewed as a low-end WR2 going forward. This is a good spot for him to pile up the receptions, as the Titans are allowing 15.7 receptions per game to opposing wideouts, the third-most in the league. They are also allowing 96.7 receiving yards per game to opposing no.1 wide receivers, the second-most in the league.
Meanwhile, George Pickens, who was a weekly WR2 in Johnson’s absence, is now back in the Gabe Davis, boom/bust WR3 range. Without Johnson, Pickens had a 27% target share but last week, his target share was just 13%. He also has returned to running mostly go and post routes, which will give him plenty of splash plays, but also plenty of low floor weeks as well. We’ll probably see Pickens consistently in the 5- to 7-target range going forward, which is enough for him to post weekly WR3 production, while this is a good matchup for him to make the most of his looks.
Tight End
Over the last two weeks, Connor Heyward has operated as the clear lead tight end for the Steelers, running a route on 88% of dropbacks with a 14% target share. He caught 5-of-6 targets for just 24 yards last week so if you are really desperate at tight end this week, at least you’ll know that Heyward will be out there.
