Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles game for Week 7.
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
PHI -2, O/U 52
Pace: MIA: 26.2 sec/snap (8th), PHI: 26.9 sec/snap (13th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown are tied for third in the league with 51 first-read targets this season.
- Raheem Mostert is averaging 1.5 fantasy points per touch.
- A.J. Brown ranks third in the NFL with a 46.9% air yardage share.
- 13.7% of the passes against the Eagles have traveled 20-plus air yards, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa has arguably been the MVP of the league through six weeks. He ranks first in passing yards (1,876), first in yards per attempt (9.5), first in touchdown passes (14) and second in big-time throw rate (6.8%). He has three finishes inside the top three and remains an obvious must-start quarterback ahead of a potential shootout against the Eagles. Philadelphia has been a massive pass funnel this season, as 77.9% of the total yardage gained against the Eagles has come via the pass, the highest rate in football. 73.3% of the touchdowns scored against this defense have come through the air, the fifth-highest rate. Meanwhile, their 4.7% passing touchdown rate allowed is the sixth-highest mark in the league. Don’t be surprised if Tagovailoa eclipses 300 yards for the fourth time this season on Sunday night.
Running Back
Raheem Mostert has been unbelievable this season. The RB3 in all of fantasy football, Mostert has posted four top-12 weeks this year, while averaging a gaudy 1.5 PPR points per touch. His 11 total touchdowns certainly have a lot to do with that, but Mostert has remained efficient on a per-touch basis, averaging 6.2 yards per touch, and leads the NFL in avoided tackles per attempt (0.33). We’ll see how much work Jeff Wilson gets in his first game back, though it won’t be enough to even consider sitting Mostert, despite the tough matchup. Just 6.3% of the runs against the Eagles this year have gained 10-plus yards, the third-lowest rate in football.
Wide Receiver
You are obviously starting Tyreek Hill. He’s on pace to eclipse 2,300 receiving yards, is being targeted on 36.4% of his routes and has 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one game so far. Philadelphia’s secondary has not only taken a step back this year, but it has been the spot to attack this defense. The Eagles are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. They are also playing man coverage 39% of the time, a top-three rate in the league. Against man coverage this season, Hill is sporting an insane 37.2% target share, while averaging over 17 yards per target and nearly 4.0 yards per route run.
Jaylen Waddle should also be in your lineups. He has now found the end zone in consecutive weeks, as Tua has been trying to get him more involved. Waddle still isn’t seeing the schemed touches that Hill gets and only has a 20% target share against man coverage on the season. Still, Philadelphia’s secondary isn’t the fastest, and you don’t ever want to have the weekly upside that Waddle presents on your bench.
Tight End
Durham Smythe has one target over the last two weeks. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel has this awesome offensive philosophy of getting the football to your best players. Smythe is not one of them.
Quarterback
Despite turning the ball over three times last week, Jalen Hurts still finished as the QB2 in fantasy. He has finished as a top-nine fantasy signal-caller in each of the last five games, as the rushing production has come back. During that span, Hurts has scored five rushing touchdowns, while averaging 43.2 rushing yards per game. The Eagles are also throwing the ball a ton, as Hurts is on pace for a career-high in pass attempts. Miami’s overall defensive numbers look okay, but they have faced the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Broncos in four of six games. In the other two, they faced the Bills and Chargers, who lit them up for 34 and 48 points, while Josh Allen and Justin Herbert finished as the QB1 and QB5 of fantasy in those contests. You are starting Hurts.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift only carried the ball 10 times for 18 yards last week but made up for it by catching eight passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Swift was targeted 10 times, and on the season, the Eagles are targeting the running back position 21.2% of the time, which is way up from their running back target share of just 12.1% in 2022. Since Week 2, Swift has played 63% of the snaps, has handled 53% of the team rush attempts and is averaging 21.4 touches per game. And over his last three games, Swift has caught 18-of-20 targets. The Dolphins have been a strong run defense this year but are allowing the highest yards per target to opposing running backs in the passing game.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown is on an absolute tear right now. He has at least 125 receiving yards in each of his last four games, and during that span is sporting a 31% target share and 46% air yardage share. Brown is tied with Tyreek Hill for the third-most first-read targets in the league, while his season-long 46.9% air yardage share also ranks third among wideouts. He should stay hot on Sunday, facing a Miami secondary that has struggled so far this season, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. The Dolphins are also coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the left side of the formation (16.1), which is where Brown lines up about 40% of the time.
It has been a rough few weeks for DeVonta Smith, who has caught just 6-of-16 targets for 50 scoreless yards over the last two games. He struggled with drops last week, but the 11 targets were at least encouraging. Smith is dealing with a hamstring injury, though he said he expects to play on Sunday night. As long as he is active, I am still starting him as a low-end WR2.
Tight End
Finally, you are also starting Dallas Goedert, who has been much more productive as of late. Over the last two weeks, Goedert has caught 13-of-17 targets for 159 yards and a touchdown. For the season, Goedert is now just under a 20% target share, though the efficiency across the board has come down a bit. The Eagles continue to scheme targets for him, as his eight targets off screens are the second-most among all tight ends, trailing only Evan Engram of the Jaguars.
