Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys game for Week 4.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -7, O/U 43
Pace: NE: 23.4 sec/snap (3rd), DAL: 27.4 sec/snap (25th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Tony Pollard has seen either a carry or target on 36.9% of snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
- He leads the NFL with 15 carries from inside the 10-yard line.
- Dak Prescott is completing just 25% of his passes from inside the 10-yard line this season.
Quarterback
With the Jets offense not posing much of a threat, Mac Jones’ massive passing volume predictably went down last week. He attempted just 29 passes, completing 15 for 201 yards and a touchdown. Jones is now the QB13 in fantasy, but I’d be hard-pressed to start him on the road against a pissed-off Cowboys defense that is generating pressure at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (29.1%). I expect the Dallas pass rush to get back on track this week.
Running Back
Last week, the Patriots went back to running the football, which led to Ezekiel Elliott seeing 16 carries for 80 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 59 yards on 19 attempts. Stevenson played 65% of the snaps Sunday, just below his season snap rate of 71%, while Elliott’s carry share climbed by 9%. Stevenson is still the lead back in New England, and it is unlikely that the Patriots are able to run the ball 35 times again. He has still played 76% of the team’s third downs, while playing 65% of the snaps in the two-minute drill. The Cowboys are vulnerable against the run, just allowing 98 yards and a touchdown to James Conner. Stevenson is my RB17 for the week, while Elliott isn’t someone you should be starting, despite the appeal of the revenge game.
Wide Receiver
The New England wideouts aren’t really on my radar here. JuJu Smith-Schuster led the Patriots in snaps last week, mainly because they ran the ball so much and he is still a really good run-blocking wideout. DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne have difficult matchups against Stephon Gilmore on the outside.
Tight End
This is a tough spot for Hunter Henry, facing a Cowboys defense that has allowed next to nothing to opposing tight ends this season, one year after allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (8.8). Henry is running a route on 80% of dropbacks so far this season, but it has only resulted in a 14.6% target share. He is a middling TE2 this weekend.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott struggled against the Cardinals last week, completing 25-of-40 passes for 249 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Dallas’ red zone woes continued Sunday, as they have now scored touchdowns on 40% of red zone trips, the fourth-lowest rate in football. Prescott is currently completing just 25% of his passes from inside the 10-yard line and under 46% of his passes from inside the red zone. This doesn’t feel like the spot where Prescott posts QB1 numbers, as the Patriots are allowing the ninth-lowest completion rate (61.6%), as well as the fifth-lowest passing touchdown rate (2.0%) and seventh-lowest yards per pass attempt (5.8). New England is also allowing the fifth-lowest yards per pass attempt off play-action passes (5.95), as well as the fourth-lowest yards per completion off the play type (8.19).
Running Back
Tony Pollard hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, but the massive game is on the horizon. He totaled 122 yards on 23 carries last week and is now averaging just under 25 touches per game on the year. Pollard has also seen either a carry or target on 36.9% of snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the league. The red zone usage has been elite, as he leads the league in carries from inside the 10-yard line with 15 and per FTN’s Expected Fantasy Points, Pollard leads all running backs in expected fantasy points (65.2), but has scored just 55.2 points. New England has been good against the run but given this usage, Pollard is due for a 30-plus-point game.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb was quiet last week but is still dominating the usage. He’s sporting a strong 25% target share, while Lamb has also accounted for 42.2% of Dallas’ receiving yards, the fourth-highest rate in football. Lamb will now face a blitz and man-heavy Patriots defense that is sending the blitz 43.6% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in football. Last season, Lamb led the NFL in target share when facing the blitz at 41% and so far in 2023, he’s seen a 27% target share against the blitz. You are obviously starting him as a top-10 wideout.
Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks, meanwhile, likely shouldn’t be in lineups. I am at least a little intrigued by Gallup. He played his best game in a long time last week, catching 6-of-7 targets for 92 yards. Gallup ran a route on 81% of dropbacks, while seeing a solid 19% target share. Over the years, Gallup has been much more productive when facing man coverage. Last year, he saw a 22% target share against man coverage compared to a 13% target share against zone. And so far this season, Gallup’s target share against man is 16% but under 9% against zone.
Tight End
In Week 3, Jake Ferguson set season-highs in route participation (62%) and saw a 19% target share. It was his second game with seven targets, while Ferguson continues to see elite red zone usage. Ferguson’s five targets from inside the 10-yard line are tied for the league lead, while he also leads the NFL with eight red zone targets. This is a pretty tough matchup, as the Patriots shut down Dallas Goedert in Week 1 and have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end. They did face the Jets and Dolphins after that, but this has been a good defense against tight ends for years now. Ferguson is a solid TE2 given his touchdown potential in a good offense.
