Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens game for Week 17.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS (announcers: Ian Eagles and Charles Davis)
BAL -4, O/U 47
Pace: MIA: 27.7 sec/snap (30th), BAL: 27.1 sec/snap (23rd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Since the start of 2022, Tyreek Hill has a 34.4% target share and 45% target per route run rate with Jaylen Waddle off the field.
- When under pressure this season, Tua Tagovailoa is sporting the fifth-lowest completion rate in football (41.8%).
- Raheem Mostert is tied for the league-lead in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line (20) …
- With Gus Edwards.
- Without Keaton Mitchell last week, Justice Hill played 62% of the snaps and handled 42% of the rush attempts.
- Edwards played 44% of the snaps and handled 38% of the rush attempts.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa continues to play really good football, but it hasn’t quite translated to huge fantasy outings. Tagovailoa has finished as a QB1 in fantasy in just three of his last eight games, and now he’ll face an elite Baltimore defense that just held Brock Purdy to 255 yards, zero touchdowns and four interceptions. And he’ll very likely be facing them without Jaylen Waddle, who is dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Miami is going to continue trying to get the ball out of his hands as fast as possible given the current state of their offensive line. Baltimore can get after opposing quarterbacks, which could be a problem here. When pressured this season, Tagovailoa is completing just 41.8% of his passes, the fifth-worst rate in the league, while throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions. Consider him a high-end QB2 in this huge AFC matchup.
Running Back
Although he left the game for a little bit, Raheem Mostert scored again last week, his 21st touchdown of the season. Since Week 12, Mostert has scored an insane eight touchdowns. And since De’Von Achane made his return in Week 13, Mostert has played 47% of the snaps and handled 51% of the rush attempts, as well as 88% of the carries inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Achane has played 49% of the snaps but handled just 33% of the rushes during that span. Mostert now leads the NFL with 20 carries from inside the five-yard line but now faces a Ravens defense that has allowed just 22.7% of the touchdowns against them to come via the run, the second-lowest rate in the league. He played a season-low 19 snaps last week due to a shin injury, but he should be good to go for this weekend. Mostert remains a must-start running back, while Achane is a high-upside flex play. His volume just hasn’t been there as of late, while Mostert is dominating the usage at the goal line.
Wide Receiver
After missing Week 15 with an ankle injury, Tyreek Hill returned Sunday. He wasn’t limited, running a route on 95% of dropbacks and playing 85% of the snaps. Hill caught nine passes for 99 yards, seeing 14 targets. The volume for Hill could be absolutely insane if Jaylen Waddle can’t play this week. Wadde ran a route on just 44% of dropbacks last week, as he suffered a possible high-ankle sprain. Early reports suggest it could sideline him for a few weeks. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hill is sporting a 34.4% target share with Waddle off the field, while drawing a target on a ridiculous 45% of his routes. Even against this tough Baltimore defense, Hill should have a huge game. Meanwhile, we’ll see what happens with Waddle throughout the week.
Tight End
For most of the season, we have completely ignored the tight end position from Miami, mainly because this team mostly throws to their elite wide receivers. However, with Waddle leaving the game last week, we did see Durham Smythe haul in all five of his targets for 56 yards, easily his best game of the season. I’d still hesitate to start Smythe if Waddle is out, but perhaps he’d be a bit more viable than usual.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson became the MVP favorite last week, throwing for 252 yards and two touchdowns, adding 45 rushing yards in a statement win over San Francisco. Jackson has now finished as a top-10 fantasy signal caller in three of his last four games. Over the course of the season, he is averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback (0.58). Jackson is also averaging 9.6 rush attempts and 52.9 rushing yards per game on the year and will face a Miami defense that has been top-three in EPA per play since Week 8, though they have only faced two top tier quarterbacks during that span. The Dolphins do rank second in the NFL in pressure rate, but Jackson is second in yards per attempt (8.3) and first in big time throw rate (10.0%) when under pressure this season.
Running Back
With Keaton Mitchell sidelined last week, it was interesting to see what Baltimore’s backfield would look like. It wasn’t like it was before Mitchell emerged, as Justice Hill ended up playing 62% of the snaps and handling 42% of the attempts. He also was on the field for 89% of the long down and distance snaps, as well as 80% in the two-minute drill. Gus Edwards, meanwhile, played 44% of the snaps, while handling 38% of the total rush attempts and 75% inside the 5-yard line. Hill saw 13 touches to Edwards’ 10, though Gus found the end zone from a few yards out. He is now tied with Mostert for the most carries inside the 5-yard line this season (20), but his role really hasn’t changed. Edwards, who is averaging less than five fantasy points per game when he doesn’t find the end zone, is a touchdown-or-bust flex. Hill, meanwhile, is a low-upside flex who sees a bump in PPR formats.
Wide Receiver
After a quiet game in Week 15, Zay Flowers was heavily involved Monday night. The rookie hauled in 9-of-13 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown, sporting a 41% target share, his highest rate in a game since Week 1. Flowers is now averaging 8.6 targets, 6.0 receptions and 16.6 PPR points per game in five contests with Mark Andrews out of the lineup this season. The Ravens continue to move Flowers all over the formation, especially before the snap, though it hasn’t led to many downfield looks. His 5.5 yards before the reception is the sixth-lowest mark in the league and while he’s been pretty inconsistent as of late, Flowers remains a high-end WR3 against the Dolphins. He is also the only Baltimore wideout you can trust, as Odell Beckham will get the deep targets but has played less than 60% of the snaps in every game since Week 1.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely caught 3-of-4 targets for 56 yards Monday, as he continues to operate as the every-down tight end for this Baltimore offense. Since Andrews went down in Week 11, Likely has run a route on 87% of dropbacks, while sporting a solid 18% target share and 30% play-action target share during that span. Likely also has two top-five fantasy finishes, while ranking fourth in yards per reception (15.3) and eighth in yards per route run (2.0) among tight ends. Continue to start him as a low-end TE1.
