Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys game for Week 17.
Week 17 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman)
DAL -6, O/U 53.5
Pace: DET: 26.7 sec/snap (18th), DAL: 27.3 sec/snap (27th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Dak Prescott is averaging 2.9 passing touchdowns, 303.6 passing yards and 25.2 fantasy points per game at home.
- The Lions just allowed seven different completions of 20-plus yards to Nick Mullens last week.
- On the season, they are allowing the fourth-highest aDOT (8.7 yards) and second-most yards per completion (12.1).
- Tony Pollard has just two touchdowns on 12 carries inside the 5-yard line.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has a 31.2% target share against man coverage this season.
Quarterback
Jared Goff completed 30-of-40 passes last week but only finished with a modest stat line of 257 yards and one touchdown. He continues to play much better when indoors, which will once again be the case this week as the Lions head to Dallas. So far this season, Goff is averaging 265.6 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns and 19.6 fantasy points per game when playing inside, compared to 1.2 passing touchdowns and just over 14 fantasy points per game when outdoors. This game has a massive total, though Dallas’ pass rush could pose a problem. The Cowboys are generating pressure at one of the highest rates in football, while Goff has thrown eight of his 10 interceptions when under pressure this season, while averaging nearly two fewer yards per attempt when under duress. Goff is on the QB1/QB2 borderline in this spot.
Running Back
It looked like last week was going to be a huge David Montgomery game, as he was dominating the carries to start the game. But he seemed to pick up an injury in the second quarter, which limited his playing time the rest of the game. As a result, Jahmyr Gibbs played 58% of the snaps, handled 43% of the rush attempts and recorded 19 touches, his most in a game alongside Montgomery this season. Gibbs scored two touchdowns and has now finished as a top-five fantasy running back in five of his last eight contests. Since Montgomery returned in Week 10, Gibbs is averaging 14.4 touches per game, while Montgomery is averaging 15.9 touches. Gibbs is a top-10 running back this week against a Dallas defense that invites the run by playing dime defense at the highest rate in football (70%). Only Christian McCaffrey has more runs of 15-plus yards than Gibbs (14), while the Cowboys have allowed the second-most second level yards in football.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown did Amon-Ra St. Brown things last week, catching 12-of-14 targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. St. Brown has now found the end zone in three of his last four games — over the course of the season, he has recorded at least 90 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game. He’ll face a Dallas defense that runs man coverage 40% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Against man coverage this season, St. Brown is sporting a 31.2% target share, though his efficiency metrics are more favorable against zone coverage. Still, St. Brown remains an elite, top-five fantasy wide receiver each and every week. Finally, while I wouldn’t start him, especially in the championship, we have seen Jameson Williams play more of a role as of late. Over the last two weeks, he has a 19% target share, while his aDOT is down about four yards from his season-long mark.
Tight End
It was a quiet game from Sam LaPorta last week, as the rookie tight end caught just three passes for 18 yards. Against man coverage this season, LaPorta has a target share north of 23% so I would certainly expect more than three targets this week. The Cowboys are only allowing 3.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this year, the second fewest in football, but LaPorta isn’t leaving your lineups.
Quarterback
After consecutive road games, Dak Prescott returns home Saturday, where he has been arguably the best quarterback in football. When playing at home, Prescott is averaging 2.9 passing touchdowns, 303.6 passing yards and 25.2 fantasy points per game. He is also completing 74% of his passes in Dallas and now gets to face one of the weakest pass defenses in football. The Lions just allowed over 400 passing yards to Nick Mullens last week, who had seven different completions of 20-plus yards. On the year, Detroit is now coughing up the fourth-highest aDOT (8.7 yards) and second-most yards per completion (12.1). And since Week 10, Detroit is surrendering the most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (23.7). You could make the case that Prescott is the top quarterback of the week.
Running Back
It was a frustrating week for Tony Pollard, who finished with just 43 scoreless yards on 13 touches. Pollard should have had a touchdown but somehow couldn’t get in the end zone from two yards out, which led to a fumble on Dallas’ very next play. Pollard now has 12 carries inside the 5-yard line this season but has only scored two touchdowns on those rush attempts. The expected fantasy points models love Pollard, but it just hasn’t been a very successful season for him. I expect the Cowboys to lean on the pass against Detroit’s pass funnel defense, which means we might need Pollard to be busy in the passing game or find the end zone to get the job done. He’s a low-end RB2.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb’s phenomenal season continued last week, as he caught six passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. Lamb has now scored a touchdown in each of his last seven games, seeing double-digit targets in five of those contests. For the season, Lamb has accounted for 36% of Dallas’ receiving yards, a top-five rate in the league, while his 29% target share ranks sixth. He draws a stellar matchup, as the Lions are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts since Week 10. And since Week 11, opposing No. 1 wideouts have been busy against the Lions:
- Courtland Sutton: 5-71-0
- DJ Moore: 6-68-1
- Christian Watson: 5-94-1
- Chris Olave: 5-119-0
- DJ Moore: 5-94-1
- Justin Jefferson: 6-141-1
Meanwhile, if you are really hurting at a WR3/flex spot this week, there is some upside with Brandin Cooks in this matchup. Sure, he isn’t going to see a huge target share, but he could easily get there on five or six targets here. As we mentioned, the Lions allow plenty of explosive pass plays, while Cooks is sporting an aDOT over 13 yards this season. He is also averaging 10.1 yards before the catch per reception. Cooks should see coverage from Cameron Sutton, who is allowing the seventh-highest aDOT (14.5 yards) and 14th-most yards per reception (14.6) among qualified defensive backs this season.
Tight End
Although he hasn’t scored since Week 13, it is nice to see Jake Ferguson post a solid floor lately. Over the last three weeks, Ferguson has at least 44 yards and exactly eight targets in every game, while seeing eight targets in four straight games. He still has plenty of touchdown upside, too, especially against a Lions defense that is coughing up about 53 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends on the season.
