Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers game for Week 16.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers
8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN (announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman)
SF -5.5, O/U 46.5
Pace: BAL: 26.4 sec/snap (12th), SF: 29.6 sec/snap (32nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Over the last three games with Mark Andrews sidelined, Isaiah Likely has run a route on 87% of dropbacks.
- He has a 20% target share during that span.
- Christian McCaffrey has a carry or a target on 39.6% of his snaps, the third-highest rate in football.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson passed for 171 yards, one touchdown and one interception Sunday, while rushing for 97 yards. He has now finished as a top-10 fantasy signal caller in three of his last four games. On the year, Jackson is averaging 9.6 rush attempts and 53 rushing yards per game, which has helped present him with such a high weekly floor. Jackson does draw a tough matchup this week, facing a San Francisco defense that is allowing the second-lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (2.8%). I wouldn’t expect a crazy ceiling game from Jackson here, but you obviously aren’t benching him.
Running Back
With Keaton Mitchell now out for the rest of the season, Gus Edwards should take on a larger role in the Baltimore offense. Of course, the Ravens will still give Justice Hill plenty of work, too, especially on passing downs. There was a stretch before Mitchell saw more opportunities where Edwards and Hill were sharing work, with Gus leading the way. In Weeks 3-8, Edwards played 55% of the snaps, handled 53% of the rush attempts and averaged just over 15 touches per game. Of course, you are still going to need a touchdown to feel good about starting Edwards as a RB3 or a flex. In the games he has failed to find the end zone, Edwards is averaging under five fantasy points per game.
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers was quiet last week, catching just one pass for seven yards on two targets. Flowers is now averaging 6.2 targets, 4.4 receptions, 51 receiving yards and 10.2 PPR points per game with Andrews sidelined this season. He faces a San Francisco defense that is allowing the third-most targets and receptions per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Flowers is a boom/bust WR3 with a middling floor. Odell Beckham, meanwhile, hasn’t reached the 60% snap threshold in a game since Week 1. He hasn’t run a route on even 60% of dropbacks since Week 9, which makes him extremely risky as a flex option.
Tight End
Isaiah Likely has played a massive role since the Ravens lost Andrews. Over the last three weeks, Likely has run a route on 87% of dropbacks, while playing about 75% of the snaps. Likely is averaging 6.3 targets, 4.7 receptions, 64.3 receiving yards and 15.1 PPR points per game during that span, while posting finishes of TE16, TE3 and TE5. Regardless of matchup, Likely is a top-10 fantasy tight end going forward.
Quarterback
After a four-touchdown performance last week, Brock Purdy has now finished as a top-six fantasy signal caller in five of his last six contests. He’s been unbelievable, ranking third in completion percentage (69.8%), second in passing yards (3,795), first in touchdown passes (29) and first in yards per attempt (9.9). This matchup against the Ravens will easily be his toughest of the year, as Baltimore is allowing the lowest passing touchdown rate in the league (2.6%), as well as the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.6). Still, you aren’t benching Purdy.
Running Back
Start Christian McCaffrey. I really don’t know what else even needs to be said. He leads all running backs in snap share (81%), while seeing a carry or a target on 39.6% of his snaps, the fourth-highest rate in football. McCaffrey has 100 scrimmage yards in every game since Week 7, while scoring an insane 20 touchdowns on the season. The Ravens have allowed 100 total yards to three of the last five running backs they have faced.
Wide Receiver
San Francisco is such an easy team. Even though they have a tough matchup here, you are simply starting everyone from this offense, including Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel has been red hot since Week 12, scoring eight total touchdowns during that span, while averaging over 28 PPR points per game. He is now averaging 2.64 PPR points per touch on the season, while scoring a touchdown on a whopping 13.8% of his touches. Usually we break down whether it is a Samuel or Aiyuk spot based on what coverage the opposing defense runs, but the Ravens deploy multiple different coverages. Still, both San Francisco wideouts belong in your lineup.
Tight End
As does George Kittle, who still ranks second among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.24). Kittle’s volume has been down a bit as of late, which we know can happen when this offense is at full strength. But the efficiency has remained impressive, and Kittle has run a route on over 87% of San Francisco’s pass attempts this season. The Ravens have been really, really tough against opposing tight ends this season but you aren’t streaming someone in place of Kittle this week.
