Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills game for Week 15.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills
4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX (announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen)
BUF -2.5, O/U 50.5
Pace: DAL: 26.1 sec/snap (8th), BUF: 25.6 sec/snap (2nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- James Cook is averaging 19 touches per game since Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s OC.
- He has a 14% target share during that span.
- Tony Pollard has 20 targets over his last four games.
- The Bills are allowing the fourth-most targets (7.4), receptions (5.6) and receiving yards (46.6) per game to opposing running backs.
- They have also allowed 13.5% of runs against them to gain 10-plus yards, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott continues to play like the MVP. He played well again last Sunday against the Eagles, completing 24-of-39 passes for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Since Week 8, Prescott has been unstoppable, ranking first in passing yards (2,172), first in 300-yard games (4), first in touchdowns (22), first in fantasy points, third in fantasy points per dropback (0.65), fifth in completion percentage (69.2%) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.4). During those seven weeks, he has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback five times. A road matchup against the Bills will certainly be his toughest test in a while, but Prescott remains a top-five quarterback here.
Running Back
After a brutal stretch of games in Weeks 2-10, Tony Pollard has started to pick it up. He still hasn’t quite lived up to the late first-/early second-round draft capital from fantasy drafts, but Pollard has been much better. In fact, since Week 11, he is the RB3 in total points and RB10 in points per game, averaging just over 20 touches and 90 scrimmage yards per game. During that span, Pollard has been more elusive, averaging 0.25 avoided tackles per attempt (15th), a number that was at just 0.09 through the first 10 weeks. He has been plenty involved in the passing game as of late, seeing 20 targets over the last four games. That could be impactful here, as Buffalo is coughing up the fourth-most targets (7.4), receptions (5.6) and receiving yards (46.6) per game to opposing running backs this season. And as they’ve been all year long, Buffalo remains a boom/bust run defense, as 13.5% of the runs against them have gained 10-plus yards (4th-highest rate), while they are also stuffing 22% of runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, the third-highest rate.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb found the end zone again last week, giving him a touchdown in each of his last five games. He has been on a tear alongside Prescott since Week 8, averaging 12.7 targets, 8.9 receptions, 111.1 receiving yards and over 27 PPR points per game. Lamb should continue to dominate this weekend. Meanwhile, if you are desperate and looking to start Brandin Cooks here, I’d temper expectations. Buffalo mostly plays a lot of two-high looks, limiting explosive passing plays. And to this point of the season, the Bills have allowed the second-fewest yards (342) and ninth-fewest touchdowns (2) off passes 20-plus air yards.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson remains a must-start tight end. He has eclipsed 70 yards in consecutive games and continues to see high leverage looks from Prescott. Ferguson is second in the entire NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line this season, accounting for 30% of Dallas’ targets from that area of the field.
Quarterback
Once again the QB1 in all of fantasy, you are obviously starting Josh Allen, despite the tough matchup with Dallas. Allen has just three finishes outside of the top-10 all year long, while his 0.60 fantasy points per dropback are the third-most in the league. This Buffalo offense has looked a bit different under Joe Brady, as Allen is targeting the running back position more, while his aDOT is down to 8.0 yards in the three games since Brady took over the offense. There appear to be more layups available to Allen, which is good, while there is also more of an emphasis on utilizing his skillset in the designed run game. Over the last three weeks, Allen has three rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.3 designed attempts per game. Prior to Brady taking over, Allen was averaging just two designed attempts per contest. Dallas’ defense is really tough, but you are starting Allen with confidence just like always.
Running Back
This new offense has been terrific for James Cook, too. Like we mentioned, there have been more targets to the running back position — specifically, they are way more schemed and not just random checkdowns. In the three games since Brady became the OC, Cook is averaging 19 touches and 5.3 targets per game, while sporting a healthy 14% target share during that span. We aren’t seeing a crazy bump in snaps or anything like that, as he’s played 45% of the snaps over the last three games. But he’s getting the ball when he’s on the field a lot more, which is all we want. This is a tough matchup, but you should feel as confident as ever starting Cook as a low-end RB2.
Wide Receiver
Since Week 10, Stefon Diggs has three finishes outside the top-50 wide receivers. Seriously. Diggs has seen his target share come down a bit in this new offense, but I also think it has coincided with opposing defenses truly trying to take him out of the offense. There has been more bracket coverage headed his way, while opposing defenders are trying to take away the in-breaking routes that Diggs does so much damage on. Still, he has 11 targets in each of his last two games, along with a handful of uncharacteristic drops. I know it has been frustrating but don’t take Digs out of your lineup.
Gabe Davis has failed to catch a pass in three of his last five games. This isn’t the spot to chase for the upside game, especially in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Davis has just a 16.2% target share against man coverage this season, while the Cowboys run man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (41%).
Tight End
Dawson Knox returned last week and, as you’d expect, there was an uptick in 12 personnel from the Bills. Dalton Kincaid still ended up playing 78% of the snaps, while running a route on 86% of dropbacks. Knox, meanwhile, played 47% of the snaps and ran a route on 39% of dropbacks. Kincaid is a little banged up right now but as long as he plays, he’s a low-end TE1 against a Cowboys defense that is coughing up the fifth-fewest receptions per game to opposing tight ends (3.8).
