NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles game for Week 13.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX (announcers: Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen)
SF -3, O/U 46.5
Pace: SF: 29.8 sec/snap (31st), PHI: 27.2 sec/snap (15th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Brandon Aiyuk has a 28.4% target share against man coverage this season.
- His 2.56 fantasy points per target against this defense are the second-most in football.
- The Eagles run man coverage 35% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
- DeVonta Smith is averaging 8.3 targets and 16.9 PPR points in seven games without Dallas Goedert since last season.
Quarterback
Do you think Brock Purdy is excited to play in this game?
An elbow injury knocked Purdy out of last year’s NFC Championship game against Philadelphia, but now he’ll get his chance at a rematch on Sunday. Purdy leads all signal-callers in yards per attempt on the year (9.4), while his 0.61 fantasy points per dropback trail only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. Purdy has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in seven games this year and should do so again on Sunday. Philadelphia’s pass defense has been one to target, as they are coughing up the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.0%) and second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (21.7). Meanwhile, 74.9% of the yardage gained against the Eagles this year has come through the air, the second-highest rate in football. Start Purdy as an easy top-seven fantasy quarterback this week.
Running Back
You are obviously starting Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns last Thursday night. McCaffrey is averaging about 22 touches per game on the year, while seeing a carry or a target on 39.7% of his snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. Philadelphia’s run defense is usually elite, but they have actually shown some signs of weakness as of late, allowing 4.5 yards per carry over the last three weeks. McCaffrey is obviously heavily involved in the passing game, too, catching at least five passes in each of his last four games.
Wide Receiver
This is honestly a great spot for all of the main pass-catchers from San Francisco.
We’ll start with Brandon Aiyuk, who has historically been this team’s best option against man coverage. That has been the case again this season, as Aiyuk is sporting a healthy 28.4% target share against man coverage on the year, while his 2.56 fantasy points per target against the defense are good for the second-most in the league. He also ranks third among qualified wide receivers in yards per route run when facing man coverage (4.16). Philadelphia, meanwhile, is running man coverage 35% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, making this a very advantageous spot for Aiyuk. Aiyuk is a top-10 wideout ahead of this NFC Championship rematch.
While Deebo Samuel has been more productive against zone-heavy defense, I still like this spot for him. Last week, San Francisco made a real effort to get him involved, as Samuel caught 7-of-9 targets for 79 yards, while rushing four times for a touchdown. Granted, that was against a zone-heavy Seattle team that he has had a great track record against. And although Samuel’s target share against man coverage is under 17% this season, I like this matchup. The Eagles are coughing up the third-most fantasy points per target off slant routes this season (1.73), as well as the most touchdowns off the route (4). Slant routes have made up over 16% of Samuel’s targets so far this season.
Tight End
George Kittle had a quiet game last week, taking a backseat to McCaffrey and Samuel. As we know, that is going to happen from time to time when this offense is at full strength. Of course, you are still starting Kittle each week, who ranks second among all tight ends in yards per route run this season (2.20). A bounce-back performance is more than likely, as Kittle ranks second on the team with a 23.3% target share against man coverage this season. The Eagles are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this year (12.8), as well as the most total touchdowns to the position (6).
Quarterback
After a rough first half against Buffalo last week, Jalen Hurts turned it on, ultimately finishing the game with 200 passing yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 65 yards and two more touchdowns. Hurts might be fully healthy, as the rushing has come back, averaging 13 rush attempts per game over the last two weeks following the bye. And 20 of his 26 rushes over the last two games have been designed. Hurts should have to do a lot of the heavy-lifting in this game, as 72.2% of the yardage gained against San Francisco this season has come through the air, the sixth-highest rate in football. You are obviously starting Hurts every single week.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift continues to operate as the lead running back for the Eagles, averaging over 19 touches per game since taking over the backfield in Week 2. And despite often having to compete with the tush push, Swift is still sixth in the league in carries from inside the five-yard line this season (11). Regardless of matchup, Swift remains on the RB1/RB2 borderline.
Wide Receiver
While the yardage certainly hasn’t been what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the last three weeks, A.J. Brown has still scored in two of his last three games. He has a target share just north of 30% on the year, while accounting for 46% of Philadelphia’s air yards, one of the highest rates in the league. Brown will probably see plenty of coverage from Charvarius Ward in this game, who did a tremendous job against DK Metcalf a week ago. Still, he can win in any matchup, and the 49ers are coughing up the second-most receptions (14.9) and third-most targets (22.4) per game to opposing wide receivers on the year. Most of the production against this pass defense has come from wide receivers, which isn’t a problem at all for the Eagles.
DeVonta Smith is also a must-start wide receiver, especially if Dallas Goedert remains sidelined. Over the last two games with Goedert out of the lineup, Smith is sporting a 35% target share, posting stat lines of 6-99-0 and 7-106-1. Since the start of last season, Smith is averaging 8.3 targets and 16.9 PPR points in seven games without Goedert in the lineup. He gets a matchup with a 49ers team that is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing pass-catchers on the left side of the formation (12.2), which is where Smith lines up nearly 40% of the time.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert was held out of practice on Thursday, as he works his way back from a broken forearm. While he originally targeted this game as his return date, Goedert is likely on the wrong side of questionable for this pivotal game. If he can suit up, he’d return to top-eight fantasy status, though it feels like we’ll be without him for one more week.
