Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets Black Friday game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
MIA -10, O/U 41
Pace: MIA: 27.4 sec/snap (18th), NYJ: 25.1 sec/snap (2nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Raheem Mostert is averaging 62.5% of Miami’s rush attempts in games without De’Von Achane this year.
- He is also averaging 15 touches per game in those contests.
- The Jets have allowed just two TDs to wide receivers all year long (Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir).
- Garrett Wilson has accounted for 44% of the Jets’ red zone targets this season, the second-highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa completed 28-of-39 passes for 325 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on Sunday. He also lost a fumble. Tagovailoa missed some throws on many third downs that could have led to more points, but it was still a strong game from Tua, who now has five games with at least 300 passing yards on the season. He still ranks second among qualified signal callers in yards per pass attempt on the year (8.6) but does face a tough test on the road against the Jets. Josh Allen finally got the better of this defense last week, finishing as the QB5 in fantasy. But overall, the Jets have been tough against the top-tier quarterbacks this season, holding Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert to finishes of QB20, QB17 and QB26, respectively. Tagovailoa is my QB9 for the week.
Running Back
There was a ton of excitement surrounding the return of De’Von Achane last week. However, the electrifying rookie played just three snaps before aggravating the same injury that had sidelined him for weeks. With Achane sidelined and Salvon Ahmed also leaving the game, Raheem Mostert ended up playing 79% of the snaps Sunday, carrying the ball 22 times for 86 scoreless yards. He handled 81% of Miami’s total rushing attempts. If Achane can’t play Friday, Mostert should be in line for a solid workload. In the games where Achane hasn’t played this season, Mostert is averaging 15 touches per contest, while handling nearly 63% of the team’s rushing attempts. The Jets aren’t as scary of a matchup on the ground than through the air and just allowed James Cook and Ty Johnson to combine for 160 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 11. If Achane is sidelined, Mostert is a borderline top-15 running back.
Wide Receiver
Following the bye week, Tyreek Hill continued to dominate, catching 10-of-11 targets for 146 yards and a touchdown. Hill now has 100 yards or a touchdown in 7-of-10 games this season, while sporting a target share of 32%. His 35% target per route run rate leads the NFL, as Miami continues to move him all over the formation to give him free releases and cause stress on the defense. He has been in pre-snap motion about 16% of the time this season, which makes matchups almost meaningless. I am a bit more worried about Jaylen Waddle, however, who only has a 20% target share on the season. Unlike Hill, Waddle doesn’t really see the schemed touches or pre-snap movement to put him in advantageous situations. He’s only been in pre-snap motion 10 times all year long and now he faces an elite Jets secondary that has allowed just two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers on the season– Stefon Diggs in Week 1 and Khalil Shakir in Week 11. It is still tough to bench someone with Waddle’s upside, but I am tempering expectations this week.
Tight End
Move along. Nothing to see here.
Tim Boyle will start at quarterback for the Jets, so we’ll see how much, if it all, things change for this offense. Production wise, things couldn’t get worse for Garrett Wilson, though he did see a massive 32% target share alongside Zach Wilson. He has also accounted for 44% of New York’s red zone targets on the year, the second-highest rate in all of football. Wilson has seen double-digit targets in five of his last seven games and I’d imagine Boyle will also target him at a massive rate. And for a Jets offense that is averaging 2.3 red zone scoring attempts per game (3rd-fewest), things really can’t get much worse. Miami’s pass defense has been much improved since getting healthy, but Wilson remains an upside WR3.
Meanwhile, Breece Hall continues to see solid volume, though the efficiency has been rough. Hall has just one game with at least 50 rushing yards over his last five contests, averaging just 34.4 rushing yards per game during that span. He’s slightly made up for it by averaging a healthy 47.4 receiving yards and 4.6 receptions per game during that same stretch. And although head coach Robert Saleh stated he wanted to get Dalvin Cook more touches, the veteran running back played just 22% of the snaps and touched the ball three times Sunday. Hall is a mid-range RB2 against the Dolphins.
Finally, if you are hurting at the tight end position this week, Tyler Conklin could be worth a look. He has a respectable 16 targets over the last three games, sporting a 15% target share during that span. Miami, meanwhile, is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points (13.0), receptions (5.6) and receiving yards (55.8) per game to opposing tight ends this season.
