Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
KC -9.5, O/U 43.5
Pace: KC: 27.2 sec/snap (15th), LV: 27.1 sec/snap (14th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Patrick Mahomes has gone three straight games outside the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks.
- Josh Jacobs has a carry or a target on 40% of snaps this season, the second-highest rate in football.
- The Raiders are allowing the third-most yards before contact per rush (1.90) this season.
- Kansas City is allowing just 45.0 yards per game to opposing number one wide receivers, the fewest in the league.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes did everything he could Monday, but his pass-catchers let him down with multiple drops and poor routes. As a result, Mahoms finished with just 177 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, giving him three consecutive games outside the top-12 fantasy signal callers. The Chiefs continue to struggle to score in the second half of games, as they have now failed to score a touchdown in the second half three straight weeks. I’m not benching Mahomes or anything, but he clearly hasn’t had quite the same massive upside this season, especially with Kansas City’s defense playing so well. Las Vegas has been playing better defense as of late but are still allowing the 10th-highest completion rate (67.8%), while pressuring opposing passers just 17.7% of the time (fourth lowest).
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco was impressive last week against a tough Philadelphia run defense, rushing for 89 yards on 19 carries. Pacheco is now averaging a solid 17 touches per game on the season and now gets a much better matchup this week. The Raiders are allowing the third-most yards before contact per rush (1.90) this season, while 13% of the runs against them have gained 10-plus yards, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. They are also coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, while opponents are scoring touchdowns on 62.5% of red zone trips against the Raiders, the sixth-worst rate in the league. Pacheco is a high-end RB2.
Wide Receiver
I’m not sure how you can start any wide receivers from this team. I want to start Rashee Rice, but despite the rookie being Kansas City’s best and most trustworthy wideout, the Chiefs simply refuse to bump up his routes. Rice has run a route on just 45% of the team’s dropbacks this season, though when he’s on the field, he draws targets, sporting a strong 23% target per route run rate. Justin Watson seems to be running the most routes from this team but are you really relying on him with zero teams on a bye?
Tight End
He may not be 100% healthy, and it wasn’t pretty last week, but Travis Kelce still found the end zone. Kelce leads all tight ends in both targets (27%) and yards (2.19) per route run over the course of the season and is sporting a 24.4% target share against zone coverage, which is what Gus Bradley and the Raiders run 65% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. You are obviously starting Kelce every single week.
The Raiders remain a team where you only start two players — Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Jacobs’ volume remains elite, as he has seen a carry or a target on 40% of his snaps this season, the second-highest rate in the league. He is averaging 21 touches per game on the year and faces a Kansas City defense that is more vulnerable against the run than the pass, surrendering the fourth-most yards per carry (4.5) and ninth-most yards before contact per attempt (1.67).
Adams, meanwhile, does draw a tough matchup against L’Jarius Sneed and the Chiefs, who are surrendering the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers (45.0). Sneed has been in shadow coverage eight times this season, including last week against A.J. Brown, who finished with just one catch for eight yards. No one has eclipsed 41 receiving yards when in shadow coverage by Sneed. Adams should still get the volume, of course, averaging 11.6 targets per game alongside Aidan O’Connell this season. Against man coverage this season, Adams has a 34.7% target share, while seeing a 34.5% target share against the blitz, a top-five rate in football. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks top-seven in usage of both man coverage (34%) and blitzes (31.2%).
